Fraser's Favorites Week 4

Cleveland at Baltimore

By selecting Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson in the draft this year, the Browns were hoping to revamp their offense. While Richardson and Weeden have shown glimpses of why they were selected so high, the Browns still find themselves as one of the least productive offenses in the league scoring only 19 points per game.  In week four, the Browns will travel to Baltimore to take on the 2-1 Ravens. The Ravens are perennially competitive with a fierce and aggressive defense, but that identity is changing. The Ravens are allowing over 400 total yards per game, specifically struggling to stop their opponents passing attacks. Even though the Browns are simply outmatched in terms of personnel, they always play the Ravens tough. On such a short week after a heroic comeback against the Patriots, the Ravens are set for a letdown. They won’t lose to the Browns, but this will be a closer game than expected.

Cleveland- 24

Baltimore- 30

Carolina at Atlanta

An ingredient that is heavily underplayed in the NFL is the impact coaches and coordinators have on teams. The perfect example demonstrating this point is the Atlanta Falcons. Last year, with similar personnel on defense, the Falcons were mediocre at best and got limited pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Last week against the Chargers, the Falcons surrendered only a field goal and Philip Rivers was often seen scrambling from Falcons defenders. Mike Nolan’s defense and Dirk Koetter’s pass-heavy offense have given the Falcons a new identity as the Falcons are playing with a renewed sense of confidence. That confidence is only magnified when this fast and aggressive team they play at home. This week the Falcons welcome the Carolina Panthers to the Georgia Dome. Someone prepare Steve Smith and the rest of the Panthers for another pouty performance from Cam Newton as Matt Ryan lights up a porous Panthers secondary.

Carolina- 23

Atlanta- 31

New England at Buffalo

It is obvious after the last four games that these New England Patriots are not the same team we saw in the early 2000’s. Tom Brady is usually one of the best “closers” with the ability to finish teams off with key drives late in games. However, their most recent Superbowl loss to the Giants and week three against the Ravens, illustrate how different this team is. Missed field goals, dropped passes, and inaccurate passes have pushed this team to 1-3 in its last four , including that Superbowl loss. This matchup with the Buffalo Bills in week four is almost a must-in for the Pats. The Patriots have not lost three consecutive games in the regular season since 2002. That doesn’t change, as the Patriots crush the Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

New England- 35

Buffalo- 21

Minnesota at Detroit

Who could have predicted that after week four the Vikings would be the only team in the NFC North with a winning record. The Vikings are traveling to Ford Field fresh off a shocking upset over the San Francisco 49ers. Even though Christian Ponder’s statistics aren’t amazing, he played arguably the best game of his career against the 49ers. He controlled the game, excelled when he ran with the ball, and did not turn the ball over. Turnovers and special teams should be a focal point of the Lions practices this week. The Lions gave up touchdowns on a punt return, kick return, and fumble return last Sunday to the Titans. Amazingly enough, the Vikings will go on the road and defeat the Lions to improve to 3-1.

Minnesota- 27

Detroit- 24

San Diego at Kansas City

The 2-0 start was too much for the Chargers to handle. They are not used to winning this many games so early in the season. They have to put themselves in a position to scramble late in the season to compete for the AFC West division title. Scoring only three points against the Atlanta Falcons, Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense looks to rebound in week four with a division game against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs offense has played well, but cannot turn the ball over as much as they have if they are going to be successful. With help from the crowd at Arrowhead stadium and several big plays from Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs will improve to .500.

San Diego- 20

Kansas City- 22

Seattle at St. Louis

Even if Russell Wilson’s career doesn’t pan out as expected, he will forever be remembered as the quarterback who won a game by throwing an interception. The way the Seahawks defense pressured Aaron Rodgers in the first half Monday night was extremely impressive. Rodgers looked uncomfortable in the pocket all night and was pressured on virtually every pass. This week four matchup between the Seahawks and Rams will be a physical, gritty matchup won by the team who can establish the better rushing attack. Marshawn Lynch truly is a beast running the ball between the tackles and will amass over 125 rushing yards against the Rams.

Seattle- 21

St. Louis- 18

San Francisco at New York Jets

Mark Sanchez gives more souvenirs to a crowd with wild passes than Alex Rodriguez does with foul balls at Yankee Stadium.  Inaccuracy has always been a weakness in Sanchez’ game, but isn’t he supposed to improve as he plays more games? His passes continue to sail over wide-open receivers heads causing the Jets offense to stall against the Dolphins. The Jets welcome the San Francisco 49ers to Met Life Stadium in week four. The 49ers are reeling after a week three upset loss to the Vikings. Jim Harbaugh will have this team prepared as Alex Smith and the 49ers offense will take advantage of a Jets defense without Darrelle Revis

San Francisco- 23

NY Jets- 13

Tennessee at Houston

Joe Mays played the part of Mike Tyson last Sunday ripping off part of Matt Schaub’s ears with one of the most vicious hits seen on a football field. Schaub managed to bounce back and hold off a last minute effort from Peyton Manning and the Broncos to help the Texans improve to 3-0. In week four the Texans will welcome their division rival Tennessee Titans. Division games this year for the Texans should be among their easiest games. The Titans have by far the worst rushing game in the league, and will struggle to establish a passing offense given the Texans ability to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks

Tennessee- 10

Houston- 30

Cincinnati at Jacksonville

Cincinnati quietly has a well-balanced offensive attack that ranks in the top ten in the NFL. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green give the Bengals big play ability through the air, while Benjarvus Green-Ellis has been serviceable on the ground. Balance is something that Jacksonville seriously lacks. Without Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars would not have an offense. Blaine Gabbert stands only in front of Russell Wilson in terms of total passing yards and Justin Blackmon has two fewer receptions than Ravens fullback Vontae Leach. Once the Bengals get a lead, Gabbert will be forced to throw and well, he simply just does not do that well.

Cincinnati- 24

Jacksonville- 14

Miami at Arizona

If Reggie Bush had not fallen to injury last week, the Dolphins would be in first place in the AFC East right now. Joe Philbin has an undermanned team that many expected to be one of the leagues worst, playing at a pretty high level right now. Ryan Tannehill gives the Dolphins high hopes for the future. This week the Dolphins face one of the three undefeated teams in the Arizona Cardinals. Kevin Kolb continues to prove coach Ken Whisenhunt wrong in his preseason decision to make John Skelton the starting quarterback. Arizona will win this game because they will win the turnover battle and because the absence of Reggie Bush will be too much for the Dolphins to overcome.

Miami-17

Arizona- 24

Oakland at Denver

Peyton Manning should start games thinking it is the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter this season, Manning has a passer rating of 110 and has thrown three touchdown with no interceptions. He has shown glimpses of the Manning that we were used to seeing with the Indianapolis Colts, but has also shown a turnover prone side we have never seen before. The Broncos opponent in week four, the Raiders, should not exactly strike fear in Manning. The Raiders have managed only two takeaways and have yet to force an opponent to throw an interception. If Manning doesn’t turn the ball over, the Broncos should walk away with this game at home.

Oakland-21

Denver-31

New Orleans at Green Bay

The New Orleans Saints were once known as a franchise that drove its fans to put paper-bags over their heads in disgust. Once Sean Payton arrived, the Saints franchise turned into a contender and got a Superbowl victory in 2009. Without Sean Payton, Saints fans should do some extra grocery shopping, pick up some extra paper bags, and start wearing them in week five at home against the Chargers. The “Aints” will start the 2012 regular season 0-4 with a loss to the Packers. Their defense is in shambles and the cure is not traveling to Lambeau Field to take on an angry Aaron Rodgers. Packers by two touchdowns.

New Orleans- 28

Green Bay- 42

Washington at Tampa Bay

RGIII is single-handedly keeping the Redskins close in these football games. He is completing over 67% of his passes, thrown for 747 yards in three games, and has thrown four interceptions with only one interception. The most amazing part about the way RGIII has been playing is the way he bounces back from big hits he takes from rushing. Big hits are something the Buccaneers dole out when the other team has already won the game. Schiano’s efforts are now laughable because he is teaching his team how to be the best loser’s instead of how to win games. Schiano’s focus should shift to his quarterback Josh Freeman to figure out how to help the fourth year player out of Kansas State. Freeman looks like he is playing scared and has had issues with accuracy so far this season completing only 51% of his passes.  Freeman should take some notes from RGIII this Sunday on how to make plays with his legs like he used to in his first, second, and third years. RGIII and the Redskins go on the road to defeat the Buccaneers in a low-scoring content.

Washington- 20

Tampa Bay- 16

NY Giants at Philadelphia

Michael Vick isn’t the only problem with the Philadelphia Eagles. Another problem with the Eagles is the poor play of cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha. The Eagles signed Asomugha last year in the efforts he would give them one of the best secondarys in the league. Even though as a whole the Eagles are giving up the third least amount of passing yards per game, Asomugha has not lived up to expectations.  The Giants meanwhile looked all the part of defending Superbowl champions last Thursday night against the Panthers. Eli Manning and the offense looked sharp and the defense held Cam Newton in check. With over ten days of rest and the Eagles offense struggling to maintain possession of the ball the Giants will travel to Philly, defeat the Eagles, and  take control of the NFC East.

NY Giants- 33

Philadelphia- 25

Chicago at Dallas

Despite having arguably two of the better quarterbacks in the league, the Cowboys and Bears rank 20^th and 27^th in total offense so far this year. The inconsistencies of Tony Romo and Jay Cutler can be attributed to the inconsistencies in the rushing game, wide receiver play, and pass protection by both teams. This Monday Night football contest will be won by the team whose quarterback plays best. Jay Cutler and the Bears offensive struggles will continue at Cowboys stadium and the Bears will fall to 2-2.

Chicago- 23

Dallas- 29

Fraser's Favorites Week 3

NY Giants at Carolina

If you blinked watching the Buccaneers-Giants game last Sunday, you missed either a controversial play or a huge touchdown pass. The Giants looked down and out early in the third quarter, but managed a miraculous comeback victory to salvage one win in their opening two game homestand. The fireworks were not over when Michael Boley intercepted a Josh Freeman pass that clearly ended the game, as the Buccaneers bull rushed the Giants offensive line knocking Eli Manning to the ground. In my opinion, Greg Schiano is completely wrong. It is called Victory Formation for a reason. Teams, as they have since the game was invented, have conceded defeat when other teams have lined up to take a knee. Regardless of week two controversy, expect fireworks in Carolina in a week three NFC showdown. The Giants will look to slow down Cam Newton. If there is a team to slow down Newton’s playmaking abilities, it is the G-men. The athleticism they have on defense, specifically Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, and Mathias Kiwanuka, should combat the big play specialties of Newton. Giants in a high-scoring contest.

NY Giants- 42

Carolina- 38

St. Louis at Chicago

Most GM’s and coaches would like and appreciate having an overly confident quarterback with a big arm that can make all the throws. There are not many GM’s and coaches that would accept what Jay Cutler did during the Bears Thursday Night Football game and the comments he made afterward. Lovie Smith needs to sit Cutler down and remind him that this is a team game. Smith also needs to remind him the colors of the Bears franchise as Cutler thought they were Packers green and gold. So long as Cutler continues to turn the ball over, the Bears will not be able to take the next step like they were hoping to this season. Despite my dislike for the way Cutler handled the situation, I think his play was simply an aberration. However, I also don’t think that the Rams play has been an illusion either. Sam Bradford thinks its 2010 again, playing at a level similar to when he won Rookie of the Year. Playing at Soldier Field though against a Bears defense that leads the league in takeaways is a different animal. Bears by two touchdowns

St. Louis- 17

Chicago- 31

Buffalo at Cleveland

Explosive isn’t exactly the word that comes to mind when discussing the the Bills and the Browns. However, explosive can certainly define C.J. Spiller and Trent Richardson. Both runningbacks have made multiple highlight reel plays and give their offense big play ability on every play. This much anticipated mathup between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brandon Weeden will be won by the team that does not turn the ball over and that plays better defense. Bills win.

Buffalo- 26

Cleveland- 20

Tampa Bay at Dallas

Greg Schiano may very well be the man to solve Tampa Bay’s problems and bring them back to relevance, but what he did Sunday is not the way to do it. He has to understand the unwritten rules of the game, despite his argument that it has worked four times in five years. He should first teach his players how to win, and not how to lose in a classless way. It should be interesting to see what happens this Sunday when Tony Romo is kneeling the ball to end the game. I truly thought this was going to be the year that the Cowboys remained consistent the whole season and didn’t confuse us into thinking they were contenders one week and pretenders the next. And then they got crushed by the Seahawks. This is the most inconsistent team of this decade. As they return to Dallas this week, I expect Romo and the offense to vault the Cowboys to a much needed win.

Tampa Bay- 26
Dallas- 34

Detroit at Tennessee

Matt Ryan, QB. Mario Manningham, WR. Matt Cassell, QB. What do they all have in common? They all have more rushing yards so far this year than Chris Johnson. But it isn’t just Chris Johnson that should be getting a negative wrap so far; it is the entire Titans offense. The Titans rank 31^st in total yards, last in rushing yards, and are averaging 11.5 points per game. Combine the abysmal offense with a defense allowing 36 points per game and you have a recipe for disaster. The Lions enter this game looking to make a statement after losing to the 49ers in week two. Expect Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson to light up the Titans secondary, pushing Tennessee to an 0-3 start.

Detroit- 35

Tennessee- 20

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

If I am a Jaguars fan, I am hoping Blaine Gabbert is too injured to play Sunday. Fortunately, I am not a Jaguars fan. How long will the Jaguars wait before they look to make a move at that position? Jacksonville should look to their opponent in week three to figure out how to scout quarterbacks. In 1998, Indianapolis drafted future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning with the first overall pick and in 2012 they selected Andrew Luck with the first overall pick. They are hoping Luck can carry on the dominant quarterback legacy Manning left and eventually become a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback. The final drive in week two against the Vikings demonstrated Luck’s incredible talents. In week three, the Colts ground game will set up the play action abilities of Luck leading the Colts to consecutive wins.

Jacksonville- 24

Indianapolis- 27

 

NY Jets at Miami

Tony Sparano forgot that football games were 60 minutes long. He only scripted the first drive before the game and hoped that would be enough. I truly do not understand what the Jets were doing on offense. In week one, Tebow was a crucial part of the offense; not for the number of touches he received, but because of his presence on the field. In week two, New York must have thought it was the pre-season again and tried to hide how they would use him. Miami, on the other hand, had a gameplan in week two and stuck to it. To alleviate the pressure put on rookie Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins focused on the ground game giving Reggie Bush ample opportunities to make big plays. He pulled through. Bush and the Dolphins rush attack will pull through again in week three against a Jets opponent that has surrendered 4.8 yards per rush. Dolphins take charge in the AFC East after week three.

NY Jets-20

Miami-23

San Francisco at Minnesota

Alex Smith has quietly gone from a game manager to a leader of the best team in the NFL. It is curious how the quarterback of the best team in the league can do anything quietly, especially in today’s media driven league. The reason for this is that Smith won’t put up huge numbers and he won’t provide any commentary for the media to focus on. Smith does exactly what is necessary for the 49ers; he maintains possession of the football and does not put his defense in bad situations. Jim Harbuagh has the 49ers playing football like it’s the 1970’s. In an era of the spread offense and quarterbacks, the 49ers dominate with defense and ball control offense. Don’t expect the Vikings to be a threat to the 49ers winning ways.

San Francisco- 28

Minnesota- 16

Kansas City at New Orleans

There is no doubting that the New Orleans Saints miss Sean Payton. But even when Payton was Head Coach, he had little say as to what went on defensively. Right now, defense is the Saints biggest problem. In the past, New Orleans managed to score a ton of points and force turnovers. In 2012, the Saints have recorded only one turnover, given up 922 yards in two games, and yielded 12.5 yards per passing attempt to opposing defenses. Those are impossible statistics to overcome even if Drew Brees is their quarterback. However, not every offense they play will run the option offense like the Saints saw against the Redskins and Panthers. The Saints will overcome their defensive difficulties in week three and send the Chiefs to their third consecutive loss to open 2012.

Kansas City- 21

New Orleans- 42

Cincinnati at Washington

If not for Josh Morgan’s incredible stupidity at the end of the Redskins week two game, Washington could be tied with Philadelphia atop the NFC East with a 2-0 record. Instead, a 62 yard field goal fell short and the Redskins are sitting with 20 other teams in the league at 1-1. Washington’s Sunday got even worse after the loss when news broke that both Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker would miss the remainder of the season. Robert Griffin III might be an offensive rookie of the year candidate and the quarterback Washington hoped for, but he doesn’t play defense too. I expect there to be some defensive lapses this Sunday for the Redskins from the injury fallout, opening the door for a big day from Benjarvus Green-Ellis.

Cincinnati- 30

Washington- 29

Philadelphia at Arizona

While football is a complicated game in terms of X’s and O’s, the idea of how to win a football game is fairly simple. The Eagles have defied the accepted logic of how to win games. Nine turnovers. 19 penalties. Multiple red zone mistakes. Surprisingly, the Eagles have won games with defense; something they forgot how to play in 2011. Now, imagine what will happen when Michael Vick and the offense doesn’t turn the ball over. Imagine if the defense continues to play the way it has and Michael Vick makes good decisions. We will find out what happens when the Eagles take on the Cardinals at the University of Phoenix Stadium. Eagles improve to 3-0 and remain atop the NFC East.

Philadelphia- 33

Arizona- 24

Atlanta at San Diego

 The Atlanta Falcons defense shocked the league Monday night as they forced Peyton Manning to throw three interceptions due to their personnel groupings, coverage disguises, and blitz packages. However, it is also important to point out how the Falcons let the Broncos back into the game. Atlanta got away from their gameplan of quick play-action passing and attempted to run the ball for a majority of the fourth quarter. Identity crisis was a key concern for the Falcons in 2011. They have to remain consistent if they want to prove themselves true contenders. Traveling to the West Coast and beating the 2-0 Chargers would be another solid step for Atlanta in proving that point. For the first time under head coach Norv Turner San Diego has gotten off to a fast start. This should be an excellent football game. Matt Ryan will continue his outstanding play as Head Coach Mike Smith improves to 6-0 when playing on the west coast.

Atlanta- 31

San Diego- 27

Pittsburgh at Oakland

The Raiders were marked by some as an under the radar team to look out for at the beginning of the 2012 season. Someone please tell the Raiders it is week three of the regular season and that they’re about as close to the radar as Michael Turner was to the speed limit Monday night….The Raiders have all but shed themselves of that negative image they had in the early 2000’s, but now it is time for this team to start putting together wins. 27 points in two games and 54 rushing yards by Darren McFadden is not the way to win games. The last team a struggling offense wants to welcome into their home stadium would be the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Raiders themselves will collapse into their own “Black hole” and fall to 0-3.

Pittsburgh- 24

Oakland- 13

Houston at Denver

We get it, we get it. Peyton Manning had a horrible first quarter. But like every coach, teacher, and parent should say; “It’s not about where you start, but about where you finish”. Manning may have dug the Broncos in a huge hole on Monday night, but he brought them back into that game too. While it took him three quarters to do so, Manning finally got back into the groove we are used to seeing him in. In week three, Manning will face what has been the best statistical defense up to this point in 2012 as the Broncos welcome the Houston Texans to Mile High Stadium. This will be the best pure football game of the week. An offensive genius in Manning against a defense allowing 196 yards per game and 8.5 points per game. Manning will bounce back in week three leading the Broncos in the fourth quarter to capture victory.

Houston- 20

Denver- 21

New England at Baltimore

One of these two AFC powerhouse teams is going to be 1-2 after the first three games of the year. That team will be the New England Patriots. Over the past three seasons, Tom Brady has been getting sacked at an exponential rate. In 2009 he was sacked 16 times, 2010 25 times, and in 2011 he was sacked 32 times. So far in 2012, Brady has been sacked 5 times and each of those sacks has been against pressure from four men or fewer. If you understand all that, it is obvious that the time that Tom Brady has to throw the ball is getting lesser and lesser each year. Is this the year the Patriots franchise starts to fade after its decade-long dominance? Absolutely not. But the ease with which the Patriots used to put away teams is no more, particularly when those teams have strong defensive fronts. Patriots offensive line meet Haloti Ngata and Maake Kemoeatu. The pressure the Ravens will put on Tom Brady will force him to make uncharacteristic mistakes.

New England- 24

Baltimore- 27

Green Bay at Seattle

The Seahawks most recent victory over the Cowboys was probably the most complete game a team has played so far this season. They beat the Cowboys in nearly every facet of the game and illustrated a superior rushing attack piling up over 180 yards. The Seahawks also have an extra advantage playing at home when the “12^th man” gets involved in games. That “12^th man” will quiet down quite a bit as Aaron Rodgers tears apart the Seahawks secondary. It was only a matter of time before Rodgers caught fire again. The Seahawks are just playing the Packers the wrong week of the year.

Green Bay- 37

Seattle- 23