Thursday, November 8, 2012

Fraser's Favorites Week 10

Indianapolis at Jacksonville
Jacksonville should have made a trade for Tim Tebow. While I have made it known that I do not think Tim Tebow is a viable NFL starter, the Jaguars would be better off with him than Blaine Gabbert. There has to be an ulterior motive here. How could the Jacksonville Jaguars organization possibly go on this long with Blaine Gabbert as their quarterback? Is it possible that owner Shahid Khan has his eyes set on Los Angeles down the road? Just look at the difference in situations between Indianapolis and Jacksonville at the quarterback position. Andrew Luck has played eight games and it is blatantly obvious how much better off the Colts are. He is clearly demonstrating how the Colts were able to make a decision to let Hall of Famer Peyton Manning go. In week ten, Luck will build off of his record-setting performance against the Dolphins last week leading the Colts to their fourth straight win.
Indianapolis- 28
Jacksonville- 24

NY Giants at Cincinnati
The Cincinnati Bengals were supposed to be the darlings of the NFL this year. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green led them to the playoffs last year and many thought this team was geared up to repeat. Now, the Bengals should just hope to end their season at .500. Cincinnati’s losing streak will continue with a loss to the New York Giants in week ten. A current four-game losing streak can be attributed to the mediocre play of Andy Dalton, who has thrown eight interceptions in his last five games, and a defense that has surrendered over 27 points per game throughout the season. In speaking of struggling quarterbacks, Eli Manning, who ranks out of the top 15 in quarterback rating of the starting qb’s in the league, has completed only 54% of his passes over his last four games. While the Giants are the current leader of the NFC East and, barring a major upset, will win the division, Manning and the offense have to be more consistent to compete in the playoffs. Expect the elite Eli to illustrate just how dangerous the Giants can be as they defeat the Bengals at Paul brown Stadium.
NY Giants- 35
Cincinnati- 24

Atlanta at New Orleans
There has suddenly been a huge role reversal in the NFC South. While the Atlanta Falcons have been competitive with the New Orleans Saints in efforts to win the division in the past, the Saints are now looking up at the 8-0 Falcons. Not only are the records demonstrating this reversal, but so do the offensive and defensive strategies of these teams. The Atlanta Falcons are now the most explosive offense in the division and defensively have become a gimmicky, blitzing team. The Falcons should think back to week 16 of 2011. In that game, the Saints continued to throw the ball despite having a commanding lead in an effort to have Drew Brees break Dan Marino’s record for passing yards in a season. There could be no better revenge for the Falcons than going on the road and ending any remaining hope the Saints have to make the playoffs. Matt Ryan will add to his MVP resume, as the Falcons pick apart the worst defense in the NFL.
Atlanta- 40
New Orleans- 30

Tennessee at Miami
With two games remaining against the New England Patriots and one with the San Francisco 49ers, the Miami Dolphins need to win this Sunday to keep their playoff dreams alive. The 30th ranked Tennessee Titans defense could provide the perfect outlet for Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins offense. That is, only if the Dolphins rushing attack finally shows up. In Miami’s past five games, leading rusher Reggie Bush’s best game was a 67 yard effort. To alleviate pressure from Ryan Tannehill, Miami has to run the ball better. Meanwhile, Bush’s counterpart in week ten, Chris Johnson, has fully redeemed himself after an incredibly slow start rushing for 526 yards in his past four games. Despite playing the 3rd ranking rushing defense, Johnson’s hot streak will continue. Chris Johnson will rush for over 150 yards as the Tennessee Titans crush the Dolphins playoff hopes in a close game at Sun Life Stadium.
Tennessee- 27
Miami- 24

Detroit at Minnesota
At one point earlier in the season, it looked as though there would be three teams from the NFC North that would make the playoffs. Not anymore. Neither of these teams will make the playoffs. The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings have too many holes to be successful, especially with the difficulty of their remaining schedules. The Minnesota Vikings passing offense, led by sophomore Christian Ponder, has struggled mightily and now could be without its biggest weapon in Percy Harvin. The Detroit Lions have struggled with consistency issues. While they do have the number one ranked passing offense in terms of passing yards per game, inconsistencies on both sides of the ball have seriously hurt them. In week ten, expect the Lions to avenge a week four loss to the Vikings, extending their win streak to three.
Detroit- 35
Minnesota- 21

Buffalo at New England
A glance at the box score from the week four matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots could be a good determinant as to which team will win this game. The Bills went into halftime against the Patriots with a 21-7 lead. The defensive acquistions during the off-season seemed to be paying off and C.J. Spiller was running wild against the Pats defense. And then the Bills started to play like the Bills we have come to know this year. In the second half, they turned the ball over three times, allowed six touchdowns on six consecutive Patriot drives, and in total surrendered 580 yards of offense. That second half from their week four matchup is indicative of what week ten will be like. While the Patriots will not be able to match their rushing offense from week four, expect Tom Brady to pick apart the Bills secondary in a season sweep of Buffalo.
Buffalo- 17
New England- 35

San Diego at Tampa Bay
When the San Diego Chargers drafted Ryan Mathews with the 12th overall pick in the 2010 draft, they were hoping he would have the impact that Doug Martin is having in Tampa Bay. Mathews mediocre play has not replaced the likes of LaDainian Tomlinson, Michael Turner, and Darren Sproles. The Chargers offense has suffered as a result. They rank in the bottom half of the league in both passing offense and rushing offense. Few could have guessed that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense would be more threatening than the Chargers. Rookie sensation Doug Martin, a rejuvenated Josh Freeman, and the number one defense against the run have led the Bucs to three wins in their last four games. Expect this to be the highest scoring game of the week. With wildcard hopes resting on the fate of games like this for both teams, this is the most important game of the season for them. Philip Rivers is always at his best in the second half of the season and that will continue this year. The Chargers will overcome a journey cross country, and Philip Rivers will pass for over 400 yards, as the Chargers knock off the Bucs in a close contest.
San Diego- 45
Tampa Bay- 38

Denver at Carolina
Cam Newton was asked what he thought about his counterpart in week ten in Peyton Manning. He responded by saying that he has seen Peyton Manning in a Papa John’s uniform, making audible’s in a Buick Verano, and that he sees him everywhere. The major difference there is that while Peyton Manning is breaking down film of the Panthers defense, Cam Newton is busy watching t.v. Some argue that the expectations for Newton are too high and that he doesn’t have enough playmakers around him. Even those arguments fail to make up for the severity of the slump that Newton finds himself. His 77 quarterback rating and 57% completion percentage rank in the bottom four of the starting quarterbacks in the league. Newton should pay close attention to the way Peyton Manning manages and executes on the field, as he should also pay attention to the way Manning conducts himself after games. With another three touchdown performance from Manning, the Denver Broncos will win their fourth straight game as the Carolina Panthers fall to 2-7 and Newton dons another ugly sweater in a post-game press conference filled with disappointment.
Denver- 40
Carolina- 30

Oakland at Baltimore
The Baltimore Ravens should be considered one of the most overrated teams in the league. A 6-2 record is deceiving because of the teams they have beaten and the manner in which they beat those teams. Statistics also demonstrate that the Ravens rank in the bottom half of the league in three out of the four major statistical categories: 15th in passing offense, 16th in rushing offense, 22nd in opponent passing yards, and 28th in opponent rushing yards.  They are fortunate to host the Oakland Raiders in week ten. The Raiders could be without their star runningback Darren McFadden and have to travel cross country for their game at M and T Bank Stadium. Expect Joe Flacco to further cripple a reeling Oakland team as the Ravens improve to 7-2.
Oakland- 17
Baltimore- 34

NY Jets at Seattle
There is always discussion about how the “12th man” of CenturyLink Field is going to impact opposing offenses. However, the home crowd may have more of a positive effect on Russell Wilson than anything else. In four games at home this season, Russell Wilson is completing 62% of his passes with nine touchdown passes, zero interceptions and a quarterback rating of 120. Wow. He has simply been perfect at home. In week ten, Wilson and the Seahawks welcome the 3-5 New York Jets after a 2,848 mile journey across country. Mark Sanchez’ beauty rest on the plane ride over will be disturbed by thoughts of Bruce Irvin, Brandon Mebane, and Chris Clemons whom anchor a Seahawks defense that ranks 4th in the league in total sacks. As Mark Sanchez and the Jets’ offensive struggles continue at the hands of the fearsome Seattle defense, the chants for Tebow will echo across country leaving Rex Ryan no choice but to make a change at quarterback.
NY Jets- 17
Seattle- 24

St. Louis at San Francisco
Is it just me, or does it feel like the St. Louis Rams have had three or four bye weeks in a row? Maybe that’s what the team thought because the Rams have taken the last four weeks off. They had lost their last three games and then had an actual bye week in week nine. The Rams might as well not show up to Candlestick Park. The San Francisco 49ers boast the 2nd rank rushing defense in the league and the 5th ranked passing defense. Expect that defense  to stifle a Rams offense that has scored only 17 points per game as the 49ers improve to 7-2.
St. Louis- 13
San Francisco- 26

Dallas at Philadelphia
Scrolling through television channels late Monday Night, I stumbled upon watching America’s Funniest Home Videos on ABC. I was watching for about 10-15 minutes, and then I realized that instead I was watching the Eagles offensive line attempt to block. Those laughable, failed attempts and watching Michael Vick duck his head in fear, were much funnier than couples slip and fall into wedding cakes and children falling off of bikes. Now, these same Philly linemen are going to have to block Demarcus Ware and company in an effort to keep Michael Vick healthy.  While the pressure on Michael Vick will not subside, LeSean McCoy will finally get the number of carries necessary to carry this depleted Eagles team. In games this season where McCoy gets 20+ rushes, Philadelphia is 3-0. In games this season where McCoy gets less than 20 rushes, the Eagles are 0-5. That record will be 4-0 after this Sunday when McCoy leads the Eagles to a win against the Cowboys. With rumors of Sean Payton coming to Dallas in the off-season, Jason Garrett should cherish the final weeks he has left as Dallas’ head coach.
Dallas- 27
Philadelphia- 30

Houston at Chicago
Without a doubt the game of the year so far. There are numerous stars on both sides of the ball for both teams. Brian Urlacher. J.J. Watt. Matt Forte. Arian Foster. Brandon Marshall. Andre Johnson. Julius Peppers. Matt Schaub. Jay Cutler. This is going to be a treat for all football fans. So which team has the upper hand? The Chicago Bears defense has scored seven touchdowns off of 17 interceptions. To put that into perspective, the Indianapolis Colts only have three takeaways the whole season. Charles Tilman and Tim Jennings lead the way for the Bears defense as Tilman leads the league in interceptions with six and Jennings leads the league in forced fumbles with seven. However, J.J. Watt, leader of the league in sacks, is a complete game changer. He has an effect on the quarterback even when he doesn’t get a sack. Watt’s ability to change an offense will be the key to this game. The consistency and discipline demonstrated by the Texans offense will limit the Bears’ defense big play abilities. Texans go into the Windy City and knock off the 7-1 Bears.
Houston- 27
Chicago- 23

Kansas City at Pittsburgh
Romeo Crennel dismissed himself as the defensive coordinator of the Kansas City Chiefs. He made that move because he said he wanted to spend more time with a reeling offense. There isn’t enough time left in the season for Romeo to fix an offense averaging 11.5 points per game over its last four games. This week also marks the first time Todd Haley will face his old team. Haley must love how badly the Chiefs are playing offensively. He has more weapons in Pittsburgh. He has an elite quarterback in Big Ben. This one won’t even be close. Pittsburgh has had a history this year of playing down to their opponent’s level, specifically in losses to the Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans. Not this week. On the Monday Night Football stage, the Steelers will easily beat the Kansas City Chiefs as they look to oust the Ravens as the leaders of the AFC North.
Kansas City- 14
Pittsburgh- 28