Thursday, November 1, 2012

Fraser's Favorites Week 9

Kansas City at San Diego
For the last several years, games between these two teams have been masked with a false sense of meaning. That is, we think that the Chiefs and Chargers can be competitive, but in the end, they are just two very mediocre if not below average teams playing in a mediocre division. Not only do these games mean nothing in the grand scheme of the playoff race, but they are also some of the ugliest games imaginable. Last year, in the two games these teams played, there were 11 total turnovers and 32 penalties committed. In week four, that ugly play continued as the Kansas City Chiefs turned the ball over six times in a 37-20 loss to the Chargers. Don’t expect much to change in week nine. The Chiefs have had no consistency at the quarterback position, and no consistency from pass rush on defense which is their supposed strength. Look for Ryan Mathews to break out in a big way on the Thursday night stage, as the Chargers hand the Chiefs their fifth straight loss.
Kansas City- 17
San Diego- 31

Denver at Cincinnati
To Ken Anderson, being mentioned in the same breath and sentence as Peyton Manning would be an honor. However, if Manning continues to match the performances he has put on over the last five games (14 touchdowns to one interception), he could accomplish what Anderson did in 1981 with the Bengals; win both the Comeback Player of the Year award and the NFL MVP. That MVP campaign will continue in week nine. While Andy Dalton and A.J. Green have shown explosiveness, they do not get enough help around them to stick with Manning and the Broncos. Expect Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos to pick apart a Bengals defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in both pass and rush defense.
Denver- 35
Cincinnati- 24

Baltimore at Cleveland
For the past decade, the Cleveland Browns have been the doormat of the AFC North and would be expected to get dominated by division rivals. Not anymore. The Cleveland Browns have been rejuvenated by two rookies, Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson. Despite being bothered by injury practically all season, Trent Richardson has proven why so many thought highly of him coming into the league. Quarterback Brandon Weeden has already made tremendous strides, illustrating superior accuracy, particularly on deep throws. This week nine matchup will illustrate the difference between year past and the new-look Browns. Cleveland welcomes the current leader of the AFC North, the Baltimore Ravens. That lead will not last. There are way too many holes in this team, specifically on their defense, to overcome. Injuries and old age have plagued this defense all season and their offense is not good enough to compensate. A slow defense that has difficulties stopping the run is not one that wants to play Trent Richardson right now. The Browns get an upset win at home over their division rivals to continue to a three game win-streak.
Baltimore- 17
Cleveland- 20

Arizona at Green Bay
Remember when the Arizona Cardinals were the shock of the league after a 4-0 start? I don’t remember it either. This has to be one of the quickest turnarounds for a team in history. Over their last four games the Arizona Cardinals are averaging only nine points per game and their defense hasn’t been what it was in the first four weeks. This week, the Cardinals travel to Wisconsin to take on the Green Bay Packers. Last week, against an inferior Jaguars team, Rodgers and the Packers allowed Jacksonville to hang around to the end of the game. That second half dagger has been missing so far. Week nine will be the turning point for the Pack. Aaron Rodgers and the offense will find its stride at Lambeau Field, as the Cardinals offense remains stuck in reverse.
Arizona- 13
Green Bay- 30

Chicago at Tennessee
Lions and Titans and Bears, oh my! Courage, heart, and a brain were the three items that were asked for in the movie Wizard of Oz. The Chicago Bears certainly demonstrated all three last Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. A courageous comeback was made possible because of the brains shown by Jay Cutler continuously throwing to wide receiver Brandon Marshall in clutch time. The Bears managed to improve to 6-1 on the season, and remain in control of the NFC North. In week nine, the Bears travel to Tennessee to take on the Titans. The Titans plan to turn back to sophomore quarterback Jake Locker instead of veteran Matt Hasselback. Why, Mike Munchak?? Why? Hasselback gives the Titans the capability of winning now in a conference where 9-7 might make the playoffs. With that quarterback controversy lingering overhead, expect the consistency of the Chicago Bears to reign supreme in this week nine matchup. A persistent ground attack led my Matt Forte, and a defense that had scored more points this season than some offenses, will hand Tennessee its second straight loss at home.
Chicago- 27
Tennessee- 21

Miami at Indianapolis
The Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts were projected to have four wins each for the entire year; if they were lucky. By the end of week eight, each team is above .500 and has their eyes set on an AFC Wildcard spot. Rookie Andrew Luck has been as advertised, ranking in the top ten in the league in passing yards per game. Luck has also proven he has the ability to run as well, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt, and gaining 14 first downs with his legs. His counterpart in week nine, rookie Ryan Tannehill is hoping to play this week, but is listed as questionable because of a leg injury he suffered early in week eight. Even if Tannehill can’t go, Matt Moore is a capable back-up. The key to this game will be the rushing attack of the Miami Dolphins. Over the last four games, the Dolphins have averaged only 71 yards per game on the ground and their star runningback Reggie Bush has been held to under 60 yards in Miami’s last four games. Bush will not be contained in week nine. He and the Dolphins rushing offense will lead Miami past the Colts to improve to 5-3 on the year.
Miami- 23
Indianapolis- 20

Carolina at Washington
We know one thing that will be needed at the end of this game; oxygen for the defensive linemen trying to catch the opposing quarterback. This matchup features two quarterbacks that give defensive coordinators headaches with their running abilities. Cam Newton has to be fired up to play this game. Not only has his team fallen victim to several last second field goals in recent weeks, but his incredible rookie statistics are being threatened by RGIII. Which quarterback will prevail in this week nine showdown? There is no way Cam Newton can be restrained for this long. He has to break out again at some point in 2012. Will it be week nine? Yes. Newton will finally look like he did in 2011, as the Panthers steal a win from the Redskins in a close contest.
Carolina- 30
Washington- 28

Detroit at Jacksonville
The Detroit Lions simply have to win this football game. The NFC Wildcard is going to be extremely competitive this year as three teams from each division, excluding the NFC South, could be vying for spots.  The Lions also have on their schedule tough matchups with the Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, two games against the Green Bay Packers, the Chicago Bears, and no cake walks in the Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings. Defeating the Jaguars in Jacksonville would at least put Detroit in the middle of the pack. The Jaguars rank in the bottom half of the league in all of the following: passing offense (32nd), rushing offense( 27th), pass defense (23rd), and run defense (25th). The end of this season cannot come soon enough for first year head coach Mike Mularkey. Could the Jaguars be looking toward Matt Barkley behind center in 2013?
Detroit- 42
Jacksonville- 17

Buffalo at Houston
A team that should be built for upstate New York winters should be prepared to stop the run, right? Most teams, when they have to play in snowy, wintry conditions, resort to a ground and pound style of football. So how do the Buffalo Bills have the worst rushing defense in the NFL? Great question. When the Buffalo Bills went out and picked up Mario Williams and drafted Marcell Dareus, they completely forgot about their linebacking core. Kelvin Sheppard. Nigel Bradham. Nick Barnett. These three linebackers have been virtually non-existent for the Bills defensively. THe Bills are giving up an average of over 170 yards per game on the ground. That average for rushing yards per game will actually go up after this game. Arian Foster, Ben Tate, and the Texans run offense will combine for over 300 yards against the lowly Bills.
Buffalo- 10
Houston- 30

Tampa Bay at Oakland
When a majority was prepared to end the defibrillation process on these teams and many were declaring them dead, both the Bucs and Raiders have won two games in a row and shown some signs of life. The Bucs have won two of their last three games thanks to much improved play from Josh Freeman and a consistent rushing attack from rookie Doug Martin. Over his last three games, Freeman has thrown nine touchdowns and only one interception. He has started to develop a repertoire with veteran wide receiver Vincent Jackson, who has been targeted 28 times in three games. Week nine could be a crucial game in the rebuilding process for the Bucs and Raiders. In a close game, Josh Freeman will continue his exceptional play, as the Buccaneers improve to 4-4 and keep their playoff hopes alive.
Tampa Bay- 27
Oakland- 23

Minnesota at Seattle
There is going to have to be a whole lot of pain medication and ice baths prepared for the end of this game. Expect a hard-hitting, smash mouth football game between the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks. Not only can both defenses put pressure on the opposing quarterback, but both teams feature runningbacks that can deliver serious blows to defenders. When Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch get to the second level of defense, you can imagine why no one wants to tackle them. With two young quarterbacks, in Christian Ponder of the Vikings and Russel Wilson of the Seahawks, much of the power of these offensive attacks weigh heavily on these runningbacks. However, the key to winning this game will be the quarterback that can be the best game manager and the offensive line that can keep their quarterback clean. With Bruce Irvin and Red Bryant, the Seahawks pass rush will force Ponder to make several mistakes, as Seattle improves to 5-3.
Minnesota- 20
Seattle- 27

Pittsburgh at NY Giants
Let us all hope the Pittsburgh Steelers have away 1930’s throwback uniforms as appealing as those from last week. The equipment manager must have gotten fashion advice from Walt Frazier and Craig Sager whom always don interesting suits on NBA sidelines. It didn’t matter what jersey’s the Steelers wore last Sunday, they would have easily beaten RGII and the Redskins. In week nine, the Steelers will visit the defending champion New York Giants. The New York Giants are being recognized as one of the powerhouses in the NFC. Some of their wins may not be pretty, specifically, their wins over the Redskins, Bucs, and Cowboys last week, but they always find a way to win those games at the end. It is inevitable that the G-men will lose one of those close games. That loss will come in week nine. Big Ben will escape the constant pass rush of the Giants and the fourth quarter last-second drive led by Eli Manning will be unsuccessful.
Pittsburgh- 30
NY Giants- 26

Dallas at Atlanta
A tale of two totally different beginnings to their week eight games for the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons.  The Dallas Cowboys first six drives ended in either an intercepted pass or a punt. The Atlanta Falcons first six drives all ended in points. The Falcons have been able to take control of the lead early and control that lead for the remainder of games. In fact, through their seven games, Atlanta has only been trailing for a little over seven minutes in total. A rejuvenated defense under Mike Nolan has surrendered only 18 points per game, while an offense led by MVP candidate Matt Ryan has demonstrated the ability to be both explosive through the air and control games on the ground. However, a major flaw in the Falcons team could be unearthed this Sunday Night. The offensive line has to be perfect to defend Demarcus Ware and Rob Ryan’s blitz schemes. Expect the pass rush of the Cowboys to be equalized by the improved screen attack of the Falcons, as Matt Ryan and Atlanta improve to 8-0.
Dallas- 27
Atlanta- 35

Philadelphia at New Orleans
We get it. Michael Vick isn’t the same player the Eagles signed to a contract three years ago. But Vick isn’t the main problem with this team. The major problems with this team are the lack of identity on offense, the inconsistencies with defensive strategies, and the players on the team simply being overrated. In speaking of overrated, so was the much-anticipated return of interim Head Coach Joe Vitt. After winning two games in a row, and Vitt returning, there was hope in New Orleans. And then they got crushed by the Denver Broncos on a national stage. I’m still not ready to declare this Saints team completely dead. While they have to go on a serious run to make the playoffs, you can bet there is not a team in the league that wants to play Drew Brees. This is a make or break game for both the Saints and Eagles. Another loss and they can kiss their playoff dreams good-bye. The dream continues for the Eagles, as Vick picks apart a porous Saints secondary.
Philadelphia- 35
New Orleans- 33