Fraser's Favorites Week 3

NY Giants at Carolina

If you blinked watching the Buccaneers-Giants game last Sunday, you missed either a controversial play or a huge touchdown pass. The Giants looked down and out early in the third quarter, but managed a miraculous comeback victory to salvage one win in their opening two game homestand. The fireworks were not over when Michael Boley intercepted a Josh Freeman pass that clearly ended the game, as the Buccaneers bull rushed the Giants offensive line knocking Eli Manning to the ground. In my opinion, Greg Schiano is completely wrong. It is called Victory Formation for a reason. Teams, as they have since the game was invented, have conceded defeat when other teams have lined up to take a knee. Regardless of week two controversy, expect fireworks in Carolina in a week three NFC showdown. The Giants will look to slow down Cam Newton. If there is a team to slow down Newton’s playmaking abilities, it is the G-men. The athleticism they have on defense, specifically Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, and Mathias Kiwanuka, should combat the big play specialties of Newton. Giants in a high-scoring contest.

NY Giants- 42

Carolina- 38

St. Louis at Chicago

Most GM’s and coaches would like and appreciate having an overly confident quarterback with a big arm that can make all the throws. There are not many GM’s and coaches that would accept what Jay Cutler did during the Bears Thursday Night Football game and the comments he made afterward. Lovie Smith needs to sit Cutler down and remind him that this is a team game. Smith also needs to remind him the colors of the Bears franchise as Cutler thought they were Packers green and gold. So long as Cutler continues to turn the ball over, the Bears will not be able to take the next step like they were hoping to this season. Despite my dislike for the way Cutler handled the situation, I think his play was simply an aberration. However, I also don’t think that the Rams play has been an illusion either. Sam Bradford thinks its 2010 again, playing at a level similar to when he won Rookie of the Year. Playing at Soldier Field though against a Bears defense that leads the league in takeaways is a different animal. Bears by two touchdowns

St. Louis- 17

Chicago- 31

Buffalo at Cleveland

Explosive isn’t exactly the word that comes to mind when discussing the the Bills and the Browns. However, explosive can certainly define C.J. Spiller and Trent Richardson. Both runningbacks have made multiple highlight reel plays and give their offense big play ability on every play. This much anticipated mathup between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brandon Weeden will be won by the team that does not turn the ball over and that plays better defense. Bills win.

Buffalo- 26

Cleveland- 20

Tampa Bay at Dallas

Greg Schiano may very well be the man to solve Tampa Bay’s problems and bring them back to relevance, but what he did Sunday is not the way to do it. He has to understand the unwritten rules of the game, despite his argument that it has worked four times in five years. He should first teach his players how to win, and not how to lose in a classless way. It should be interesting to see what happens this Sunday when Tony Romo is kneeling the ball to end the game. I truly thought this was going to be the year that the Cowboys remained consistent the whole season and didn’t confuse us into thinking they were contenders one week and pretenders the next. And then they got crushed by the Seahawks. This is the most inconsistent team of this decade. As they return to Dallas this week, I expect Romo and the offense to vault the Cowboys to a much needed win.

Tampa Bay- 26
Dallas- 34

Detroit at Tennessee

Matt Ryan, QB. Mario Manningham, WR. Matt Cassell, QB. What do they all have in common? They all have more rushing yards so far this year than Chris Johnson. But it isn’t just Chris Johnson that should be getting a negative wrap so far; it is the entire Titans offense. The Titans rank 31^st in total yards, last in rushing yards, and are averaging 11.5 points per game. Combine the abysmal offense with a defense allowing 36 points per game and you have a recipe for disaster. The Lions enter this game looking to make a statement after losing to the 49ers in week two. Expect Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson to light up the Titans secondary, pushing Tennessee to an 0-3 start.

Detroit- 35

Tennessee- 20

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

If I am a Jaguars fan, I am hoping Blaine Gabbert is too injured to play Sunday. Fortunately, I am not a Jaguars fan. How long will the Jaguars wait before they look to make a move at that position? Jacksonville should look to their opponent in week three to figure out how to scout quarterbacks. In 1998, Indianapolis drafted future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning with the first overall pick and in 2012 they selected Andrew Luck with the first overall pick. They are hoping Luck can carry on the dominant quarterback legacy Manning left and eventually become a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback. The final drive in week two against the Vikings demonstrated Luck’s incredible talents. In week three, the Colts ground game will set up the play action abilities of Luck leading the Colts to consecutive wins.

Jacksonville- 24

Indianapolis- 27

 

NY Jets at Miami

Tony Sparano forgot that football games were 60 minutes long. He only scripted the first drive before the game and hoped that would be enough. I truly do not understand what the Jets were doing on offense. In week one, Tebow was a crucial part of the offense; not for the number of touches he received, but because of his presence on the field. In week two, New York must have thought it was the pre-season again and tried to hide how they would use him. Miami, on the other hand, had a gameplan in week two and stuck to it. To alleviate the pressure put on rookie Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins focused on the ground game giving Reggie Bush ample opportunities to make big plays. He pulled through. Bush and the Dolphins rush attack will pull through again in week three against a Jets opponent that has surrendered 4.8 yards per rush. Dolphins take charge in the AFC East after week three.

NY Jets-20

Miami-23

San Francisco at Minnesota

Alex Smith has quietly gone from a game manager to a leader of the best team in the NFL. It is curious how the quarterback of the best team in the league can do anything quietly, especially in today’s media driven league. The reason for this is that Smith won’t put up huge numbers and he won’t provide any commentary for the media to focus on. Smith does exactly what is necessary for the 49ers; he maintains possession of the football and does not put his defense in bad situations. Jim Harbuagh has the 49ers playing football like it’s the 1970’s. In an era of the spread offense and quarterbacks, the 49ers dominate with defense and ball control offense. Don’t expect the Vikings to be a threat to the 49ers winning ways.

San Francisco- 28

Minnesota- 16

Kansas City at New Orleans

There is no doubting that the New Orleans Saints miss Sean Payton. But even when Payton was Head Coach, he had little say as to what went on defensively. Right now, defense is the Saints biggest problem. In the past, New Orleans managed to score a ton of points and force turnovers. In 2012, the Saints have recorded only one turnover, given up 922 yards in two games, and yielded 12.5 yards per passing attempt to opposing defenses. Those are impossible statistics to overcome even if Drew Brees is their quarterback. However, not every offense they play will run the option offense like the Saints saw against the Redskins and Panthers. The Saints will overcome their defensive difficulties in week three and send the Chiefs to their third consecutive loss to open 2012.

Kansas City- 21

New Orleans- 42

Cincinnati at Washington

If not for Josh Morgan’s incredible stupidity at the end of the Redskins week two game, Washington could be tied with Philadelphia atop the NFC East with a 2-0 record. Instead, a 62 yard field goal fell short and the Redskins are sitting with 20 other teams in the league at 1-1. Washington’s Sunday got even worse after the loss when news broke that both Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker would miss the remainder of the season. Robert Griffin III might be an offensive rookie of the year candidate and the quarterback Washington hoped for, but he doesn’t play defense too. I expect there to be some defensive lapses this Sunday for the Redskins from the injury fallout, opening the door for a big day from Benjarvus Green-Ellis.

Cincinnati- 30

Washington- 29

Philadelphia at Arizona

While football is a complicated game in terms of X’s and O’s, the idea of how to win a football game is fairly simple. The Eagles have defied the accepted logic of how to win games. Nine turnovers. 19 penalties. Multiple red zone mistakes. Surprisingly, the Eagles have won games with defense; something they forgot how to play in 2011. Now, imagine what will happen when Michael Vick and the offense doesn’t turn the ball over. Imagine if the defense continues to play the way it has and Michael Vick makes good decisions. We will find out what happens when the Eagles take on the Cardinals at the University of Phoenix Stadium. Eagles improve to 3-0 and remain atop the NFC East.

Philadelphia- 33

Arizona- 24

Atlanta at San Diego

 The Atlanta Falcons defense shocked the league Monday night as they forced Peyton Manning to throw three interceptions due to their personnel groupings, coverage disguises, and blitz packages. However, it is also important to point out how the Falcons let the Broncos back into the game. Atlanta got away from their gameplan of quick play-action passing and attempted to run the ball for a majority of the fourth quarter. Identity crisis was a key concern for the Falcons in 2011. They have to remain consistent if they want to prove themselves true contenders. Traveling to the West Coast and beating the 2-0 Chargers would be another solid step for Atlanta in proving that point. For the first time under head coach Norv Turner San Diego has gotten off to a fast start. This should be an excellent football game. Matt Ryan will continue his outstanding play as Head Coach Mike Smith improves to 6-0 when playing on the west coast.

Atlanta- 31

San Diego- 27

Pittsburgh at Oakland

The Raiders were marked by some as an under the radar team to look out for at the beginning of the 2012 season. Someone please tell the Raiders it is week three of the regular season and that they’re about as close to the radar as Michael Turner was to the speed limit Monday night….The Raiders have all but shed themselves of that negative image they had in the early 2000’s, but now it is time for this team to start putting together wins. 27 points in two games and 54 rushing yards by Darren McFadden is not the way to win games. The last team a struggling offense wants to welcome into their home stadium would be the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Raiders themselves will collapse into their own “Black hole” and fall to 0-3.

Pittsburgh- 24

Oakland- 13

Houston at Denver

We get it, we get it. Peyton Manning had a horrible first quarter. But like every coach, teacher, and parent should say; “It’s not about where you start, but about where you finish”. Manning may have dug the Broncos in a huge hole on Monday night, but he brought them back into that game too. While it took him three quarters to do so, Manning finally got back into the groove we are used to seeing him in. In week three, Manning will face what has been the best statistical defense up to this point in 2012 as the Broncos welcome the Houston Texans to Mile High Stadium. This will be the best pure football game of the week. An offensive genius in Manning against a defense allowing 196 yards per game and 8.5 points per game. Manning will bounce back in week three leading the Broncos in the fourth quarter to capture victory.

Houston- 20

Denver- 21

New England at Baltimore

One of these two AFC powerhouse teams is going to be 1-2 after the first three games of the year. That team will be the New England Patriots. Over the past three seasons, Tom Brady has been getting sacked at an exponential rate. In 2009 he was sacked 16 times, 2010 25 times, and in 2011 he was sacked 32 times. So far in 2012, Brady has been sacked 5 times and each of those sacks has been against pressure from four men or fewer. If you understand all that, it is obvious that the time that Tom Brady has to throw the ball is getting lesser and lesser each year. Is this the year the Patriots franchise starts to fade after its decade-long dominance? Absolutely not. But the ease with which the Patriots used to put away teams is no more, particularly when those teams have strong defensive fronts. Patriots offensive line meet Haloti Ngata and Maake Kemoeatu. The pressure the Ravens will put on Tom Brady will force him to make uncharacteristic mistakes.

New England- 24

Baltimore- 27

Green Bay at Seattle

The Seahawks most recent victory over the Cowboys was probably the most complete game a team has played so far this season. They beat the Cowboys in nearly every facet of the game and illustrated a superior rushing attack piling up over 180 yards. The Seahawks also have an extra advantage playing at home when the “12^th man” gets involved in games. That “12^th man” will quiet down quite a bit as Aaron Rodgers tears apart the Seahawks secondary. It was only a matter of time before Rodgers caught fire again. The Seahawks are just playing the Packers the wrong week of the year.

Green Bay- 37

Seattle- 23

Fraser's Favorites Week 2

Tampa Bay at New York Giants

What a difference a year makes in the NFL. Obviously, it is only one game and that is not enough to determine how a team will do, but both these teams began 2012 the opposite from which they left 2011. The Buccaneers managed an upset win over the Panthers, keeping Carolina’s explosive offense in check, while the New York Giants fell to the Dallas Cowboys in a week one letdown. The Giants inconsistencies in the regular season have to frustrate Tom Coughlin. It will be like 2011 all over again at Met Life stadium in week two. Jason Pierre-Paul will wreak havoc in the backfield as the Buccaneers will look like the team in disarray and the Giants will return to Superbowl form.

Tampa Bay- 20

New York Giants -28

Kansas City at Buffalo

Kansas city’s offense was on fire in the first half last week against the Falcons, scoring on all of their possessions. The second half was a totally different story. Multiple turnovers and a missed field goal spelled doom for the Chiefs. KC travels to Buffalo in week two to take on an opponent who surrendered 48 points to the Jets. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who led the league in interceptions last year, threw 3 more last Sunday in a complete debacle for the Bills. The biggest letdown for the Bills was the debut of linebacker Mario Williams. He failed to make an impact on the game with only one tackle, not living up to the huge payday he was rewarded with this off-season. Mario Williams, meet Tamba Hali. Hali makes his return this season after violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy and will look to force Ryan Fitzpatrick into another multiple-turnover game. It happens in week two as the Chiefs go on the road to Buffalo to get their first win of 2012.

Kansas City- 27

Buffalo- 21

Cleveland at Cincinnati

That was not the start Brandon Weeden hoped for in his rookie debut. Weeden finished Sunday with a 5.1 passer rating. 5.1. Colt McCoy’s first game passer rating? 80.5. How could the Cleveland Browns expect McCoy to thrive and improve when his best wide receiver was Mohamed Massaquoi. I also certainly never saw Colt McCoy be as inaccurate as Brandon Weeden was on some of his passes Sunday.  I’ll join the “Clamoring for Colt” bandwagon early because Weeden is not the answer; and yes, one game is enough to tell. The Browns travel to Cincinnati this week to take on the 0-1 Bengals. Forget about the week 1 loss for the Bengals. In my opinion a couple of plays made the difference and adjustments can be made, particularly to the secondary, to save this team. Expect a heavy dose of the Law Firm, Benjarvus Green-Ellis, and an easy Bengals victory.

Cleveland- 13

Cincinnati- 28

Minnesota at Indianapolis

Adrian Peterson is a machine. Seriously. Is it even possible to recover from an ACL tear as quickly as he did? There were some rumors when Peterson first went down that he might not return until week eight of 2012. Fast forward eight months later, Peterson scores on two rushing touchdowns and averages 4.9 yards per rush. Don’t expect the Indianapolis Colts defense to slow Peterson down. As the Vikings visit Lucas Oil stadium, they will play Andrew Luck in his first home game as a rookie. It is entirely possible that playing on the road was the reason for Luck’s unexpectedly poor play, but I doubt the issues will be solved that quickly. Luck continues to search for his first win as a rookie while the Minnesota Vikings earn the top spot in the NFC North after week 2.

Minnesota- 24

Indianapolis- 23

New Orleans at Carolina

It is not often when Drew Brees is outdueled by opposing quarterbacks. It is even stranger when Drew Brees is outdueled at home. It is just an oddity and a rarity when Drew Brees is outdueled by a rookie quarterback at home. The Saints offense failed to mesh on Sunday as Brees completed only 45% of his passes. Compared to his career completion percentage of 65%, he had a miserable day. His opponent this week Cam Newton had an equally poor week. It looks as though the curse of the sophomore slump haunted Newton for at least one week this season. But that was only one week. I think Cam Newton is the one that rebounds pushing the Saints to 0-2 and last place in the NFC South.

New Orleans- 26

Carolina- 30

Houston at Jacksonville

The Texans are scary. A potent passing attack with Schaub, Owen Daniels, and Andre Johnson. A solid and consistent zone rushing attack led by Arian Foster and Ben Tate. A defense that can apply pressure on the quarterback or drop back and play the pass. Not many teams in the NFL can argue that they are exceptional in all facets of the game. The Jaguars, in particular, are on the exact opposite side of the spectrum. Blaine Gabbert looked better than he did last year, but he is still not playing like the 10th overall pick the Jaguars hoped for. This game won’t even be a contest. Houston big.

Houston- 35

Jacksonville- 17

Oakland at Miami

Expectations were high for the Oakland Raiders offense. And then came their week 1 game against the Chargers on Monday Night Football and all hope was lost. While Run DMC caught 13 passes, his rushing game was non-existent; 15 carries for only 32 yards. The Raiders only managed to score a touchdown in garbage time against a mediocre Chargers defense. They can be the fastest and one of the most explosive teams in the NFL, but they have to become more consistent. The last thing the Raiders needed is a short week and a 3,000 mile journey across the U.S. to the East Coast. The schedule makers did not favor the Raiders. The Miami Dolphins will facilitate an upset with Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas paving the way toward Ryan Tannehill’s first win.

Oakland- 22

Miami- 23

Arizona at New England

While the quarterback controversy could have created a major schism in the Cardinals locker room, in week one it seemed to bring the team closer together. When John Skelton went down with a knee injury, the Cardinals willingly rallied behind Kevin Kolb who eventually led them to a win. The Cardinals hope to eventually find a franchise quarterback like what Tom Brady is to the Patriots. The Patriots have not had to worry about the quarterback position in about a decade. As long as Brady is there, the Patriots will always be in contention for the Lombardi Trophy. 2012 is no different as the Pats throw their way to their second win.

Arizona-24

New England-38

Baltimore at Philadelphia

This is going to be a fast and hard-hitting game. Both teams have some of the fastest players in the league including Torrey Smith, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin. Unfortunately for the Eagles, both their speedy receivers are game-times decisions out with hip and hamstring injuries, respectively. Even if those players are healthy, the key to this game will be if the Eagles defense can shut down what suddenly became a potent, no-huddle Ravens offense. The Ravens take advantage of the aggressive nature of the Eagles wide-9 defense with swing passes and screens to Ray Rice for big gains. Ravens by a touchdown.

Baltimore-28

Philadelphia-21

Washington at St. Louis

Let’s slow down about declaring RGIII the best rookie quarterback in this draft class. Yes, he was brilliant against the Saints, but one game does not equal a career. There will definitely be bumps in the road for Griffin and his reaction to those downs will be where we see if he is legit. His first loss would count as a bump. That first loss will be Sunday to the Rams. The Rams dominated the Lions for three quarters Sunday, but surrendered 14 points in the final quarter to lose in a heartbreaker. Things will be different for the Rams this week. Stephen Jackson will be crucial as he keeps the ball out of RGIII’s hands.

Washington- 23

St. Louis- 26

Dallas at Seattle

I think the Cowboys are for real this year. Through all of the turmoil with Dez Bryant in the offseason and even with the injury troubles going into their week one game against the Giants, the Cowboys pulled out a win. The Cowboys of old would have collapsed under pressure and thrown that game away in the fourth quarter. Not these Cowboys. Rob Ryan has that defense playing with a fiery intensity and is using Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr perfectly. In week two, the Cowboys travel to the West Coast to take on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Russell Wilson should have led the Seahawks to a fourth quarter comeback victory, but Braylon Edwards could not catch a slant pattern in the endzone on the final play. While I think the Seahawks will start the season 0-2 after a loss to the Cowboys, expect them to be a second half team to watch. Tony Romo has a big day this Sunday at CenturyLink Field.

Dallas- 30

Seattle- 21

NY Jets at Pittsburgh

Despite my obvious, constant dislike for Tim Tebow as a quarterback, I loved the way the Jets used him against the Bills. His presence on the field makes defenses think twice about what play might be coming. The deceptive nature of his presence will eventually be outdone by opposing defenses just as Tony Sparano’s WildCat offense was shut down by defenses when it was introduced. Steelers Defensive Coordinator Dick LeBeau is the perfect candidate to disrupt and demolish the Jets tricks. The question is whether he will be able to do so if both James Harrison and Troy Polamalu do not play this weekend. I expect Pittsburgh’s defense to demonstrate the blueprint for stopping this Jets offense and Mike Wallace to run free in the Jets secondary with Darrelle Revis out with a concussion in week two.

NY Jets- 24

Pittsburgh- 30

Tennessee at San Diego

Chris Johnson was expected to put a poor 2011 season behind him and return back to the player he was three years ago. Instead, Johnson opened in week one with a total of four rushing yards. Granted, it was difficult for the Titans to run as they fell behind to the Patriots, but four yards? Their opponent in week two, the Chargers, also struggled to get off to a strong start offensively totaling only 263 yards with only 32 of those on the ground. This game will be determined by the team that establishes the best run game. Johnson and the Titans find their stride first and steal a win from the Chargers in San Diego.

Tennessee- 23

San Diego- 21

Detroit at San Francisco

How many times will we see a replay of the handshake following last year’s Detroit-San Francisco game? Honestly, I want to see more of it. Two fired up coaches who won’t back down. I love it. It is obvious how much the 49ers players want to play for Jim Harbuagh. The energy in the locker room after their victory over the Packers was incredible. This is definitely going to be an exciting game to watch. Even though the Lions escaped from their week one game with a narrow win, I expect that there will be better football to be played in Detroit. Not in week two though. San Francisco’s dominating front seven will control the line of scrimmage and shut down the Lions potent passing offense. Who has got it better than the 49ers right now? Nobody.

Detroit- 17

San Francisco- 24

Denver at Atlanta

There were a lot of critics when the Falcons surprisingly traded up in the 2011 draft to grab Alabama receiver Julio Jones. Those critics should now stand up, beg for forgiveness, and apologize to Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff for doubting this move. Jones gives the Falcons an explosive playmaker that can stretch defenses vertically and will eventually become one of the best receivers in the NFL. The Falcons no huddle offense is scary. Defenses either get the downhill, tough running of Michael Turner, or the quick, star-studded passing attack led by Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan is trying to prove to the rest of the league that he is an elite quarterback. There would be no better way to break out then by defeating future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning on a nationally televised Monday Night Football game in the Georgia Dome. Ryan does just that, leading the Falcons to a 2-0 start to the season.

Denver- 33

Atlanta- 38

Chicago at Green Bay

Jay Cutler clearly loves having Brandon Marshall back on his team.  Marshall gives Cutler a wide target and has the ability to make big plays after the catch. In speaking of big plays, where were they Sunday for the Packers? While Aaron Rodgers stat line looks solid, 30 of 44 for 303 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, the Packers offense failed to click like it did in 2011. Even though Green Bay did not get off to the start it hoped and expected, it is definitely not time to panic if you’re a cheesehead. Week two will be a crucial game for the Pack as they look to defeat their rival, the Chicago Bears, and prevent an 0-2 start. There is no way Aaron Rodgers will lose two consecutive home games to open the season. I expect Clay Matthews to play a critical role in this game, disrupting Jay Cutler’s timing and rhythm. Amazingly, after week two of the regular season, it will be the Minnesota Vikings sitting atop the NFC North with the other three teams at 1-1.

Chicago- 24

Green Bay- 31