Fraser's Favorites Week 11

Arizona at Atlanta

When the Atlanta Falcons drafted Julio Jones two years ago they were hoping to match the likes of the New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints. Through ten weeks in the 2012 season, Matt Ryan is one of the top five quarterbacks in terms of quarterback rating and the Falcons are fourth in passing yards per game. They have succeeded in accomplishing that goal. And then there is that awkward moment when the Atlanta Falcons forgot how to get one yard…It happened last year in the wildcard playoff game against the Giants as Atlanta failed on 8 3^rd or 4^th and short situations and it happened again in their first loss of the season to the Saints. Atlanta is also 0 for 3 on fourth downs. They are 25^th in the league in yards per rushing attempt, with Michael Turner averaging only 3.8 yards per carry. Two glaring weaknesses in a hopeful contender that have to be solved if they want to win their first playoff game under Mike Smith. It is imperative that Atlanta jumps out to a big lead over the Arizona Cardinals at home and never looks back. An angry and humbled Falcons team will do just that against the free-falling Cardinals at the Georgia Dome.

Arizona- 20

Atlanta- 38

Cleveland at Dallas

When they needed it most, the Dallas Cowboys got a win. With the Giants losing consecutive games, the Cowboys have their sights set back on the NFC East division title. Especially considering the Cowboys have two in a row at home against the Redskins and Eagles, and one on the road against the Bengals, following this week eleven matchup with the Browns. The outlook is even better considering Tony Romo’s incredible numbers at home in games in November. He is 13-0 with 32 interceptions and 8 interceptions. Brandon Weeden’s numbers in November? A 54% completion percentage, zero touchdowns and two interceptions. Rob Ryan must be salivating because Thanksgiving is less than a week away. I mean, he must be salivating to dial up multiple different looks and blitzes to entice the rookie into poor throws. Dallas keeps the pressure on the Giants with a win at home against the Browns.

Cleveland- 17

Dallas- 31

Green Bay at Detroit

There is way, way too much talent on the Detroit Lions roster to warrant a 4-5 record. Defensively, Ndamukong Suh, who was recently voted the leagues dirtiest player, has only been a fraction of the player he was a year ago. Suh’s struggles are magnified with the struggles of Detroit’s defense who have given up close to 25 points per game which ranks in the bottom ten in the league. That defense that couldn’t stop Christian Ponder last week must now attempt to slow down Aaron Rodgers. Stop is never an appropriate word when discussing the talents of Rodgers. Defenses can only hope to contain and limit him. Limiting Rodgers and his weapons on offensive, specifically Randall Cobb, will prove to be an impossible task for Detroit. The Lions drop to 4-6 at the expense of a four touchdown performance by Rodgers.

Green Bay- 35

Detroit- 24

Cincinnati at Kansas City

That’s one small step for any other team in the league, and one giant leap for the Chiefs. The giant leap being the Kansas City Chiefs first lead of the season! Will the Chiefs finally take the next step and win another football game? Their next opportunity is in week eleven at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. The key for the Chiefs will be the protection they can provide for Matt Cassell as they take on a highly underrated pass rush that sacked Eli Manning four times last week. The Chiefs will take that step this week winning their second game of the season knocking the Bengals record to 4-6.

Cincinnati- 24

Kansas City- 27

Philadelphia at Washington

This is a perfect storm for media coverage. Michael Vick is hurt. Andy Reid will undoubtedly lose his job at the end of the season. Rookie Nick Foles will lead the Eagles. And that is just the media coverage for Philadelphia. RGIII usually dominates the coverage for the Washington Redskins, but this week coach Mike Shanahan is in the spotlight. Shanahan’s quote after the Redskins week nine loss to the Panthers was twisted to make it seem as though his team is already playing for next year. He shouldn’t have to hide that fact. This is a young team that needs to develop in order to contend. In week eleven, expect a heavy dose of Alfred Morris and RGIII in the read-option. Trickery and a constant attack on the ground will carry the Redskins past the Eagles as Philly drops their sixth straight.

Philadelphia- 27

Washington- 30

Tampa Bay at Carolina

Going into week eleven, if someone had given you the records of these two teams but not told you which team it was, there is no doubt the Carolina Panthers would be the 5-4 team and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be the 2-7 team. This is why they play the games! This is a rematch of a week one game that ended in a 16-10 Buccaneers victory. Cam Newton threw for 303 yards, but the Panthers only gained 10 yards total on the ground. Expect a much more balanced Panthers offense to keep a red-hot Josh Freeman on the sidelines, as the Panthers even the season series at 1-1 in a NFC South showdown.

Tampa Bay- 23

Carolina- 27

Jacksonville at Houston

Blaine Gabbert is….actually, it is not even worth spending time on anymore. The reality of Jackonsville’s problems were epitomized by a pick-6 thrown by Gabbert last Thursday night. An  inept offense that takes no shots downfield is no match for the Houston Texans. The Texans will cruise past its division rival to a 9-1 record.

Jacksonville- 3

Houston- 27

NY Jets at St. Louis

Danny Amendola. What an impact a 5’11”, 188 pound slot receiver can have. Three weeks in a row the Rams offense struggled, but Amendola’s presence seemed to spark both the passing and rushing attack. That same spark is what is missing from the New York Jets. The Tim Tebow madness has only worsened  and Mark Sanchez’s obvious discomfort with that situation become smore noticeable with each week. By the end of 2012, expect Sanchez to be sidelined, holding a clipboard, wishing he had taken the advice of Peter Carroll at USC to stay in college. Consecutive road games for the Jets will translate to consecutive losses. The Rams will pressure Sanchez into multiple mistakes and Rex Ryan will once again have to explain how he can justify keeping him as the starting quarterback in New York.

NY Jets- 17

St. Louis- 21

New Orleans at Oakland

A section of the Oakland Raiders stadium is often referred to as the Black Hole. The only black hole is the one the Raiders have dug themselves into. Carson Palmer’s 782 passing yards in two games have been meaningless and Oakand will once again be spectators in January. Their opponent in week 11, the New Orleans Saints, are thinking optimistically after a crucial win over the Atlanta Falcons last week. Defensive coordinators and linebackers fear playing Jimmy Graham because of the mismatches he presents. Chris Ivory has rejuvenated the Saints ground attack since Darren Sproles went down with injury, punishing defenders who attempt to tackle him. This game will be cruel and unusual punishment for the Raiders. The Raiders 25^th ranked passing defense will get picked apart by Drew Brees as the Saints continue to creep back in the playoff hunt.

New Orleans- 42

Oakland- 28

San Diego at Denver

This was supposed to be the San Diego Chargers year. The AFC West was theirs. And then the Denver Broncos signed Peyton Manning. Just imagine the frustration level of Norv Turner considering how close the Chargers have been to serious contenders. They have never been able to take that final step in getting to a Superbowl and are usually plagued by poor starts to the season. This year, they got the good start, and the Broncos were struggling. Until Peyton Manning started playing like Peyton Manning again. Nothing will change this week. Rivers will continue to crumble under the pressure of late-game situations and Manning will continue to play at an MVP-level. Broncos by two touchdowns.

San Diego- 21

Denver- 35

Indianapolis at New England

And we all thought the rivalry would end with the departure of Peyton Manning. The rivalry has only just begun! For as long as Tom Brady continues to be a Patriot, this will be a rivalry. Andrew Luck has been compared to Tom Brady in terms of his poise and presence in the pocket. There aren’t many rookies who have the ability to move around the pocket like Luck has. He buys time with his feet and allows for receivers to find space in the secondary. The Colts carry a four game win-streak into this game with them. That streak will end here. The Patriots will prove too much to handle for the Colts defense. A balanced offense that features a quick-snapping, tempo attack will dominate Indianapolis’ defense. Tom Brady-1. Andrew Luck-0.

Indianapolis- 31

New England- 45

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

This is definitely one of the best rivalries in all of sports. Not many teams have competed with each other for so long at such a level of equality. Granted, the Steelers have usually come out on top and have one the most recent championship, but the Ravens are always competing for the AFC North title. Without Big Ben, this isn’t much of a game. If the Baltimore Ravens are going to be serious contenders this year, they have to beat the Steelers without their quarterback. Expect the Ravens defense to feast on the lengthy release of Byron Leftwich as the Ravens pull away in the AFC North race.

Baltimore- 28

Pittsburgh- 10

Chicago at San Francisco

Two night games in consecutive weeks for the Chicago Bears. They failed in their first attempt in the national spotlight and now look to defeat the 49ers on Monday Night Football. Chicago turned the ball over four times Sunday night and for the third time this season lost the turnover battle. San Francisco will look to put pressure on replacement quarterback Jason Campbell and force him into making poor decisions. The most significant matchup in this game will be the 49ers rushing attack against the Bears rush defense. While Chicago boasts a defense that only allows 92 rushing yards per game, their defense has allowed 286 rushing yards combined in their previous two games. San Francisco has the number one ranked rushing offense averaging over 170 yards per game. The Bears rush defense will continue to struggle this Monday Night. Expect the 49ers to rush for 150 yards as the Bears fall to 7-3 and to second place in the NFC North.

Chicago- 13

San Francisco- 21

Miami at Buffalo

So those are the Miami Dolphins that many expected coming into this season. The Dolphins turned the ball over  four times and Ryan Tannehill looked very much like a rookie in a week ten debacle against the Tennessee Titans. Tannehill matched his career high with three interceptions and Miami’s ground game only gained 42 yards. Two weeks ago, the Dolphins were primed to compete for a spot in the playoffs as an AFC Wildcard team. Now, Miami’s surprisingly successful season will be a fight to finish at the .500 mark. In week eleven, Miami travels north to take on their division rival Buffalo Bills. Fred Jackson’s name appears on the injury report for yet another week in the 2012 season and C.J. Spiller will get the start at running back for Buffalo. Spiller’s running style is very similar to that of Tennessee Titan’s runningback Chris Johnson. Johnson became the first back in 23 games against the Dolphins to rush for over 100 yards. Expect a similar fate for Spiller this Thursday Night. Spiller will eclipse the 100 yard mark as the Bills offense carries them to their fourth win of the season.

Miami- 24

Buffalo- 28