Fraser's Favorites Week 17

San Francisco at St. Louis
A game that has relatively little impact on the playoff scene, barring a major upset by the Rams, suddenly has huge implications. If the Rams lose this game, which they will, and the Colts end up beating the Jaguars, the number one pick of next years draft falls into St. Louis’ hands. This was an incredibly disappointing season for the Rams. A team with playoff expectations as the season began is now in position to earn the one or two pick in the draft. The complete lack of an offense is solely to blame for the Rams woes. They score 11.1 points per game on average and have the leagues third worst passing attack. After getting shut out last week by the second best defense in the league in the Steelers, the Rams welcome the leagues best defense, the 49ers. Another shut out this week will end a truly pathetic season and all of St. Louis will become Indianapolis Colts fans.
San Francisco- 20
St. Louis- 0

Washington at Philadelphia
With a win this week against the Redskins, the Philadelphia Eagles could end the season on a four game win streak to improve their record to .500. While this team failed to meet exceedingly high expectations and the “superstars” of the team failed to mesh early this year, the Eagles could be scary in 2012. The momentum of a four game win streak will certainly carry over into the offseason and early next season. In order to attain that winning streak, the Eagles must defeat their NFC East rival Washington Redskins this week. In their last four games, the Redskins are giving up an average of 27 points per game, and have given up 30 points or more in three out of those four games. A rejuvenated Eagles offense will put up forty points on Washington this week illustrating what to expect of Philadelphia next year.
Washington- 24
Philadelphia- 42

Detroit at Green Bay
While the Lions are finally back into the playoffs, this game is extremely important for them. The difference between the 5 and 6 seed in the NFC is tremendous. That difference means playing either the NFC East champion or the New Orleans Saints in the SuperDome. Nobody wants to play the Saints in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Packers have achieved all they could have thus far this season and have clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs. With relatively nothing to play for, the Packers should rest their starters. As Aaron Rodgers sits, Matt Flynn will step in. Flynn will be auditioning for a starting role for another team for next season. At home, on a New Years Day where the forecast is snow, wind, and 32 degree weather, the Packers will gain the season sweep over the Lions.
Detroit- 17
Green Bay- 21

Tennessee at Houston
It is important to not only have talent going into the playoffs, but also momentum. Right now, the Houston Texans are going backwards. They have lost their last two games to two teams with sub .500 records. There are now questions again about the effectiveness of rookie quarterback T.J. Yates and the abilities of this Texans offense. However, the Texans did not come this far this season because of an explosive offense, but rather a superior defense. The absence of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has clearly impacted this teams success over the last two games. His return should serve to motivate this team. A victory against the Titans could provide the momentum necessary for the Texans to succeed in the playoffs.
Tennessee- 13
Houston -23

Indianapolis at Jacksonville
There are several questions be answered as this game is played on: Do the Colts lose to get the number one pick in the draft or do they play hard like they have in their last two wins? Do the Jaguars lose on purpose to ensure Andrew Luck and the number one pick don’t fall into their own division? Will Jacksonville trade to get Andrew Luck because Blain Gabbert is that bad? No, of course the Jaguars won’t do that, but this game will determine the future of the Colts franchise. There is no way the Colts should play to win this game. Granted, professional athletes don’t like to (and hopefully don’t) lose on purpose to gain a draft pick, but this year its exceptionally important. The players should realize that the future of the frachise is more important than pride. The Colts should not, and will not, win this game for all of the right reasons.
Indianapolis- 14
Jacksonville- 17

N.Y. Jets at Miami
A season filled with ups and downs for the Jets (two game win streak, three game losing streak, three game winning streak, two game losing streak, three game win streak, and two game losing streak) will end with another down. The Jets will miss out on the playoffs and will finish their season with a loss to the Miami Dolphins. Finishing the season with an 8-8 record and missing out on the playoffs is not what head coach Rex Ryan expected coming into the season. Last week’s loss to the New York Giants was a microcosm of the Jets season. There were plenty of opportunities for the Jets to succeed, but a lack of consistency and a lack of execution doomed them. In a city that demands success, the Jets have to reconsider their roster for the future, specifically at quarterback.
NYJ- 18
Miami- 25

Chicago at Minnesota
After a fast start to the season, the Chicago Bears were victims of injuries to their starting quarterback and starting running back. The ineffectiveness of backup quarterback Caleb Hanie ultimately destined this team for failure. The Minnesota Vikings also suffered a significant injury as star running back Adrian Peterson tore his ACL last week against the Redskins. The Vikings still remained explosive on offense last week despite losing Peterson. The Bears struggles will continue as they travel to Minnesota in the final game of the season.
Chicago- 24
Minnesota- 31

Buffalo at New England
An interesting stat concerning the subtraction of Albert Haynesworth from the Patriots roster and the addition of him to the Bucs roster. When Haynesworth was with the Patriots, the team went 5-3. Since the team has released Haynesworth, the team is 7-0. As soon as the Patriots released him, the Buccaneers scooped him up from waivers. Since the Buccaneers have had Haynesworth they are now 0-7. Now we see why there were such problems with him last year on the Redskins…Nonetheless, the Patriots have their sights on home field advantage throughout the playoffs but first have to defeat the Buffalo Bills. Earlier in the season, the Bills completed a miraculous come from behind victory in an upset to defeat the Pats in Buffalo. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady don’t forget. That humiliating loss to the Bills will be avenged this week. Bradys “injured” shoulder will soon be forgotten as he too will break Dan Marino’s former record for passing yards in a season.
Buffalo- 23
New England- 42

Carolina at New Orleans
Sean Payton will be keeping a close eye on the scores from other games around the league. As soon as the 49ers jump out to a comfortable lead over the Rams, Chase Daniels could see a substantial amount of playing time. At that point, the Saints will have nothing to play for and will want to keep Drew Brees healthy. That gives Cam Newton and the Panthers the opportunity to defeat their division rival and show the Saints what to expect from them next season. Another top ten pick coupled with the defense getting healthy again could make the Panthers a serious playoff contender next year.
Carolina-35
New Orleans- 31

Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Despite the final score of the game against the Saints, Atlanta was not completely blown out in the game. The Falcons were down 12 points with about nine minutes left when Matt Ryan completed a pass to Julio Jones. Jones fumbled and a Saints defender picked up the ball racing into the endzone for a Saints touchdown. That defensive touchdown knocked the Falcons out of the game, and made what was a close game, seem like a blowout. This week the Falcons will play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are on a nine game losing streak. Atlanta needs to win this game and hope for a Lions loss to avoid traveling to New Orleans again to take on the Saints in the playoffs. An easy win this week against the lowly Bucs will leave their playoff seed’s fate in the hands of the Lions-Packers game.
Tampa Bay- 17
Atlanta- 35

Baltimore at Cincinnati
The Bengals were supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league. They had no answer at quarterback. Their head coach was on the hot seat. Their team was supposedly a mess. And now they are in position to win the final game of the season and make the playoffs. Andy Dalton has shocked the league and has been one of the best rookie quarterbacks the league has ever seen. They have competed in arguably the toughest division in the NFL. And they have one of the leagues better defenses. The Bengals will have to be at their best this week when they welcome the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens, who need this win to secure the AFC North division title, have been known for their hiccups on the road this season. In this matchup, a young, motivated Bengals team at home will get the necessary victory to vault them into the 6th seed in the playoffs.
Baltimore- 21
Cincinnati- 24

Pittsburgh at Cleveland
With the Baltimore Ravens traveling to Cincinnati, the Steelers have an opportunity to win the AFC North. Big Ben is reportedly considering playing on an injured ankle. Big Ben doesn’t have to play in this game. Coming off of a shutout against the Rams, the Steelers defense is playing fast and motivated again. The Steelers will hold the Browns to under ten points in what will be a division clinching victory for Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh- 27
Cleveland-9

Seattle at Arizona
The Arizona Cardinals are an Early Doucet false step away from completing yet another come from behind victory. Six out of the seven Cardinals victories have been fourth quarter comebacks. A fourth quarter comeback is impossible when Marshawn Lynch is the opposing running back. As the Seahawks gain a lead in a hard fought game, Lynch will allow the Seahawks to win the time of possession and eliminate any Cardinals hopes of a comeback.
Seattle- 23
Arizona- 20

Kansas City at Denver
Kyle Orton had no chance of surviving Denver. From the time that Tim Tebow was drafted by the Broncos, all of Denver wanted Orton out and Tebow in. Orton had to hear about it everywhere he went. There were billboards begging John Fox to put Tebow in. At every game, fans would chant for Tebow. Now, Kyle Orton returns to Denver as the starting quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs and has an opportunity to spoil the Broncos playoff hopes. Not only will the Chiefs signal caller be motivated, but so will the rest of the team playing for interim head coach Romeo Crennel. A motivated Chiefs defense will contain Tim Tebow placing the playoffs hopes of the Broncos in the hands of the Raiders. However, with a Raiders loss, the Broncos will back into the playoffs.
Kansas City- 24
Denver- 20

San Diego at Oakland
With the addition of Carson Palmer, the Raiders had expectations of playing deep into the playoffs. In week 17, they will need help to make it in. The Chargers have already been eliminated from the playoffs and have to be extremely disappointed with their play this season. The talent on this roster should make them an immediate contender in not only the AFC West, but for the conference championship as well. A failure to meet their potential means the blame falls on head coach Norv Turner. As the Chargers travel to Oakland, Turner will earn a win in his final game as head coach in San Diego.
San Diego- 33
Oakland- 28

Dallas at N.Y. Giants
The playoffs are starting early this year in the NFL. After 16 weeks, the only champion in the NFC East is the mediocrity of the teams that make up the division. The winner of the division, either the Dallas Cowboys or New York Giants, will take over as the number four seed in the playoffs and will play either the Falcons or the Lions. In the first game these two teams played, there were numerous defensive mistakes as receivers were left wide open for easy touchdowns. This game will be determined by the defense that can limit those big plays. The New York Giants will be the beneficiary of an injured Tony Romo, defeating the Dallas Cowboys, vaulting them into the playoffs as the NFC East champion.
Dallas- 27
New York Giants- 33

Fraser's Favorites Week 16

Houston at Indianapolis

Forget about Andrew Luck. Forget about Peyton Manning. Dan Orlovsky is the answer in Indianapolis. Not exactly, but Orlovsky has played relatively well in the three games he has started this season. He is completing 63% of his passes, with 4 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. The real reason the Colts finally got their first win of the season though was the play of their defense. The defense forced three turnovers and held the Titans rushing attack to only 66 yards. A defense that has been giving up over 28 points per game, held the Titans to only 13 last Sunday. This same defensive effort will not be repeated on Thursday night against the Texans. They welcome a Houston team that has dominated this season because of a consistent rushing attack and ball control offense. Although T.J. Yates showed the first signs of being a rookie against the Panthers, all he will have to do against the Colts this week is turn around and hand the ball to Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Both runningbacks will go over the 100 yard mark on the ground Thursday night, as the Houston Texans improve their record to 11-4.

Houston- 27
Indianapolis- 17

Cleveland at Baltimore

Has there been a team with more disappointing losses than the Ravens this season? That is not to take away anything from what San Diego did last week, but the Baltimore Ravens have laid some serious eggs. It truly is inexplicable for this defense to lose to Blaine Gabbert earlier in the season and then to give up as much offense as it did Sunday night. There is no doubt that they will bounce back this week at home against the Browns, but this team has to find consistency especially on the road. The perfect cure for a tough road loss is an upcoming game with the offensively challenged Cleveland Browns. It seems as if the Browns have been in rebuilding mode for close to a decade now. Looks like they will have to start all over again after yet another disappointing season.

Cleveland- 13
Baltimore- 24

Minnesota at Washington

Both of these teams have shown glimpses of what they are capable of. The Minnesota Vikings offense led by Christian Ponder, runningback Adrian Peterson, and exceptional playmaker Percy Harvin can be scary. The Washington Redskins defense led by its linebacking core of Ryan Kerrigan, Brian Orakpo, London Fletcher, and Rocky McIntosh can shut down opponents. However, the most difficult thing to do in the NFL is stay consistent; something that both of these teams have struggled to do this season. The biggest disappointment for Minnesota has been the play of their defense. They have suffered serious injuries in their secondary, and are giving up an atrocious 29 points per game, which is last in the NFL. Unless Jared Allen manages to make every tackle, the Redskins rushing attack should allow them to dominate the time of possession and therefore dominate this matchup.

Minnesota- 20
Washington -30

Jacksonville at Tennessee

With absolutely no pocket presence and awareness of defensive pressure, Blaine Gabbert proved last Thursday night that he is not the answer in Jacksonville. The experiment is over. The Jaguars need to find a new quarterback. They should look to what the Tennessee Titans did this offseason and its successes and failures during the season. The Titans brought in veteran Matt Hasselback to teach rookie Jake Locker what it takes to be successful in this league. Locker’s playing time has been limited, but he has played enough to gain the necessary experience to be successful next year. Titans head coach Mike Munchak has already declared Matt Hasselback the starter for this week’s game. This is a curious decision. The Titans playoff outlook looks helpless at this point, and Hasselback, who has fought injuries all season, was a major reason why the Titans were the first victims of the Colts last Sunday. Another reason the Titans collapsed against the Colts was because their defense allowed 205 rushing yards, 80 of those coming on a 4th quarter touchdown run by Donald Brown. That kind of rush defense does not bode well when Maurice Jones-Drew is coming to town. Another flaw in the Titans team is their lack of a pass rush as they are third to last in the league with 24 sacks. Three of the four victims of the Jaguars this season, the Titans, the Buccaneers, and the Colts, are in the bottom five in the league in sacking opposing quarterbacks. The Titans inability to threaten rookie Blaine Gabbert will allow for him to become comfortable in the pocket and we may see some positive signs from him. Maybe.

Jacksonville- 16
Tennessee- 14

St. Louis at Pittsburgh

The Rams have to shut Sam Bradford down for the rest of the season. Not only because they have nothing to gain by playing him, but also because they have actually played better offensively without him. This putrid Rams offense will now travel to play a Pittsburgh team coming off a road loss to the 49ers Monday night. While the Rams should shut down Bradford, the Steelers should shut down Roethlisberger. He was completely ineffective in their game against the 49ers and needs to rest before the playoffs. Backups Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon have proved in the past that they are more than capable of putting this team in position to win games. All they have to do in this game is put their team in field goal position one time as the Rams will be shut out in Pittsburgh this week.

St. Louis-0
Pittsburgh- 20

N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets

It’s the most wonderful time of the year…Unless you are a New York football fan. Neither the Jets or the Giants showed up for their week 15 matchups, making this week 16 New York showdown even more critical for these teams playoff hopes. This game will ultimately be determined by which defense best covers its opponent’s receivers. Last week against the Eagles, the man coverage the Jets usually play was picked apart by Michael Vick. Despite having arguably the best cornerback in the game Darrelle Revis, the Jets secondary looked extremely vulnerable when Vick had enough time to throw. If the Jets hope to win this matchup with the Giants, safeties Brodney Pool and Eric Smith will have to do a better job covering space in the middle of the field and their defensive line will have to put pressure on Manning. On the other hand, the New York Giants entire defense has been suspect for much of the season. They have not played a complete defensive game yet. One game their defensive line looks sluggish, the next game their secondary leaves wide receivers virtually uncovered. These things cannot happen if the expectation is for this team to make the playoffs. In a game where the loser will be left scrambling to make the playoffs, the Giants recent loss to the Redskins will provide a wake up call to their entire team, as Eli Manning and Jason Pierre-Paul lead the Giants to a crucial win.

NYG- 27
NYJ- 23

Denver at Buffalo

Hopefully a loss will quiet the Tebow fanatics. It truly is getting tiring hearing about Tebow on various television networks. It would be interesting if he was actually a good quarterback! Nonetheless as the Denver Broncos travel to Buffalo this weekend, they will need a win to keep pace in the wild AFC West division race. The Broncos are set to run all over the Bills this weekend. The Broncos boast the league’s best rush offense, running for over 160 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Bills have the league's 28th ranked rush defense, giving up an average of about 140 yards per game. Expect the Broncos to consistently get in field goal range for Matt Prater who will nail five field goals in a key victory for Denver.

Denver- 22
Buffalo – 20

Tampa Bay at Carolina

It is amazing how much the futures of these teams have turned around in this single season. The Buccaneers were supposed to be contenders and Josh Freeman was supposed to take the next step in his progression as a young quarterback. After a seven game losing streak and a complete collapse, there is no doubt Raheem Morris will be fired and serious changes will be made. On the other hand, the Carolina Panthers have competed in just about every game they have played in and no doubt have their quarterback for at least another decade. If the Panthers can get healthy and continue to improve their defense, this will be a scary team next year. Even though these teams are only playing for pride at this point, Carolina will want to prove to the Buccaneers that they are no longer the worst team in the NFC South.

Tampa Bay- 17
Carolina- 30

Arizona at Cincinnati

Both teams in this matchup need this game to stay alive in their respective playoff races. The Cincinnati Bengals recently took care of business against the Rams, but are only 2 and 4 in their last six games. Rookie Andy Dalton was in early contention with Cam Newton for rookie of the year, but has come down to earth in recent games. In the first eight games of the season, Dalton completed 61% of his passes, with 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. In the first six games of the second half of the season, Dalton is completing 55% of his passes with only six touchdowns and six interceptions. Specifically, when Dalton plays NFC opponents, his numbers drop considerably as his quarterback rating drops from an 81 to a 57. The Bengals opponent this week are from, you guessed it, the NFC. The Bengals will have to contain Larry Fitzgerald this week which has proved to be an almost impossible task for opposing teams. In a close, hard fought, down to the wire game, the Arizona Cardinals will continue their revival from a slow start and remain in contention for an NFC wildcard spot.

Arizona- 24
Cincinnati- 21

Oakland at Kansas City

There are a number of Jekyl and Hyde teams this year, but the Kansas City Chiefs top them all. The Chiefs started the season losing three in a row, then won four in a row, then lost four in a row, and have now won two out of three. They defeated the defending SuperBowl champions and seemingly unbeatable Green Bay Packers, with a new coach in Romeo Crennel and a new quarterback in Kyle Orton. The real hero though was the defense led by Tamba Hali. With the slimmest of playoff hopes alive, the Chiefs welcome AFC West rival Oakland Raiders. The free fall for Oakland continued last week with a disastrous home loss to the Lions. A consistent pass rush from the Chiefs defense will cause Carson Palmer to commit multiple turnovers in a season-ending loss for the Raiders. Question for Hue Jackson; Now would you consider that trade for Palmer “the greatest in football”?

Oakland- 20
Kansas City- 21

Miami at New England

Thank you Tom Brady. Thank you Bill Belichick. Thank you New England Patriots for finally quieting Tim Tebow and his colt. There are no doubts about how talented the Patriots offenseis, but questions remain with regards to the Patriots defense. Before Denver started to turn the ball over, the Broncos ripped apart the Pats D averaging over 10 yards per play throughout the first quarter. After three fortuitous turnovers for the Patriots, Tom Brady and company took care of business, extending the Patriots lead. However, the Patriots will not be so fortunate in playoff games as teams will not turn the ball over three or more times. This week against the Dolphins, Brady and the offense will continue to excel, but the defense will allow the Dolphins to stay in the game.

Miami- 28
New England- 35

San Diego at Detroit

Matthew Stafford led yet another miraculous comeback for the Detroit Lions last week. When hope is dwindling and all seems lost, Stafford seems to shine. What is curious is how the Lions continue to put themselves in situations where they are forced to perform miracles. They have an above average offense, an average defense, and an excellent turnover ratio. While the Lions remain a mystery, so do the San Diego Chargers. Once again, the Chargers find themselves in the thick of things in the AFC West after yet another second half comeback in their season. Much of their success can be credited to the excellent play of their quarterback Philip Rivers. In December, Rivers is completing 75% of his passes, with seven touchdowns and no interceptions. This is going to be an extremely fun game to watch between the Chargers and Lions. Both teams have high powered offenses and need this game to remain alive in their respective playoff races. The Chargers have been in this situation before, but the Lions have proved to perform well under pressure. The Lions get a dose of their own medicine this week, as Rivers leads a comeback win over Detroit to keep the Chargers AFC West hopes alive.

San Diego- 38
Detroit- 35

San Francisco at Seattle

How can you not like the Seattle Seahawks? They have an unbelievable fan base, an energetic head coach, and a young, fiery team. With another win last week, the Seahawks improved to 7-7 and kept their playoff hopes alive. This week they welcome their division rival, the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are coming off a huge statement win against the Pittsburgh Steelers last Monday night. Despite two power outages at their own stadium, the 49ers defense continued to shine holding a one-legged Ben Roethlisberger and company to only three points. It is incredible that this defense has not allowed a rushing touchdown yet this season. They are the first team to begin the first 15 games of the season without allowing a rushing touchdown since the Decatur Staleys in the 1920’s. Enter Marshawn Lynch. Lynch, given the energy to perform by Skittles, has been an unstoppable force in the last several weeks. What will happen when the unstoppable force of Lynch meets with the 49ers immovable defense? Seahawks win.

San Francisco- 13
Seattle- 21

Philadelphia at Dallas

We knew that the NFC East was going to come down to an interesting and crazy finish, but not this crazy. The Eagles, somehow, someway, are still alive and now they are looking scary. They absolutely demolished the New York Jets last Sunday and looked like the team we had expected all season. In the Eagles last two wins, against the Jets and Dolphins, their defense has caused seven turnovers and sacked the opposing quarterback 13 times. Leading the defensive charge has been defensive end Jason Babin who has 13 sacks over the last four games and needs only 4.5 sacks to tie Michael Strahan’s season sack record. The Cowboys also got a much-needed win last week, but against a less formidable opponent. As the play of the defense for the Eagles has improved, it has made it that much easier for Michael Vick and the offense to be successful. The Eagles remain in contention for the NFC East title as Babin adds two more sacks, and the Eagles defeat the Cowboys.

Philadelphia- 35
Dallas- 33

Chicago at Green Bay

Some quotes from Rocky IV to summarize the Green Bay Packers loss to the Kansas City Chiefs this past Sunday. “You see? You see? He's not a machine, he's a man, he's a man.” Aaron Rodgers appeared to be less of a machine against the Chiefs completing less than 50% of his passes and throwing for only one touchdown. “He's cut, he's cut, the Russian's cut and it's a bad cut, and now it's Rocky Balboa coming after Ivan Drago”. The loss to the Kansas City Chiefs exposed a “cut” and a “bad cut” in the Green Bay defense and Green Bay offensive line. The Packers offensive line seemed exceptionally vulnerable and could provide an opening for a Green Bay upset in the playoffs. They still have two regular season games and a bye week in the playoffs to fix, or at least improve upon, their weaknesses. Meanwhile, the Bears now look for answers from their third string quarterback Josh McCown. In his first start of the season, McCown gets to play the defending champions who are now angry after their first loss of the season who also still need to lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Good Luck, Josh.

Chicago- 13
Green Bay- 30

Atlanta at New Orleans

This has been one of the better rivalries in the NFL over the past four seasons. The New Orleans Saints have controlled the matchup since 2008, going 5-2 against the Falcons. Five out of the seven games have been decided by four or less points, and the total point differential in the seven games is only three. The Saints defeated the Falcons in overtime earlier this season after a questionable decision by Mike Smith gave the Saints incredible field position for a game-winning field goal. The Falcons are not getting enough attention in this particular game. Too much attention is being paid to Drew Brees’ quest for a record setting season and the Saints six game win streak. The Falcons defense has played respectably well over the last few weeks and are now getting back their best cornerback Brent Grimes. Expect Matt Ryan and Drew Brees to throw touchdown after touchdown throughout this entire game. The outcome of this game will be determined by which defense is able to hold its opponent late in the game. The Falcons defense outplays the Saints defense in another classic NFC South showdown.

Atlanta- 31
New Orleans- 27