Fraser's Favorites Week 10

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Jacksonville should have made a trade for Tim Tebow. While I have made it known that I do not think Tim Tebow is a viable NFL starter, the Jaguars would be better off with him than Blaine Gabbert. There has to be an ulterior motive here. How could the Jacksonville Jaguars organization possibly go on this long with Blaine Gabbert as their quarterback? Is it possible that owner Shahid Khan has his eyes set on Los Angeles down the road? Just look at the difference in situations between Indianapolis and Jacksonville at the quarterback position. Andrew Luck has played eight games and it is blatantly obvious how much better off the Colts are. He is clearly demonstrating how the Colts were able to make a decision to let Hall of Famer Peyton Manning go. In week ten, Luck will build off of his record-setting performance against the Dolphins last week leading the Colts to their fourth straight win.

Indianapolis- 28

Jacksonville- 24

NY Giants at Cincinnati

The Cincinnati Bengals were supposed to be the darlings of the NFL this year. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green led them to the playoffs last year and many thought this team was geared up to repeat. Now, the Bengals should just hope to end their season at .500. Cincinnati’s losing streak will continue with a loss to the New York Giants in week ten. A current four-game losing streak can be attributed to the mediocre play of Andy Dalton, who has thrown eight interceptions in his last five games, and a defense that has surrendered over 27 points per game throughout the season. In speaking of struggling quarterbacks, Eli Manning, who ranks out of the top 15 in quarterback rating of the starting qb’s in the league, has completed only 54% of his passes over his last four games. While the Giants are the current leader of the NFC East and, barring a major upset, will win the division, Manning and the offense have to be more consistent to compete in the playoffs. Expect the elite Eli to illustrate just how dangerous the Giants can be as they defeat the Bengals at Paul brown Stadium.

NY Giants- 35

Cincinnati- 24

Atlanta at New Orleans

There has suddenly been a huge role reversal in the NFC South. While the Atlanta Falcons have been competitive with the New Orleans Saints in efforts to win the division in the past, the Saints are now looking up at the 8-0 Falcons. Not only are the records demonstrating this reversal, but so do the offensive and defensive strategies of these teams. The Atlanta Falcons are now the most explosive offense in the division and defensively have become a gimmicky, blitzing team. The Falcons should think back to week 16 of 2011. In that game, the Saints continued to throw the ball despite having a commanding lead in an effort to have Drew Brees break Dan Marino’s record for passing yards in a season. There could be no better revenge for the Falcons than going on the road and ending any remaining hope the Saints have to make the playoffs. Matt Ryan will add to his MVP resume, as the Falcons pick apart the worst defense in the NFL.

Atlanta- 40

New Orleans- 30

Tennessee at Miami

With two games remaining against the New England Patriots and one with the San Francisco 49ers, the Miami Dolphins need to win this Sunday to keep their playoff dreams alive. The 30^th ranked Tennessee Titans defense could provide the perfect outlet for Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins offense. That is, only if the Dolphins rushing attack finally shows up. In Miami’s past five games, leading rusher Reggie Bush’s best game was a 67 yard effort. To alleviate pressure from Ryan Tannehill, Miami has to run the ball better. Meanwhile, Bush’s counterpart in week ten, Chris Johnson, has fully redeemed himself after an incredibly slow start rushing for 526 yards in his past four games. Despite playing the 3^rd ranking rushing defense, Johnson’s hot streak will continue. Chris Johnson will rush for over 150 yards as the Tennessee Titans crush the Dolphins playoff hopes in a close game at Sun Life Stadium.

Tennessee- 27

Miami- 24

Detroit at Minnesota

At one point earlier in the season, it looked as though there would be three teams from the NFC North that would make the playoffs. Not anymore. Neither of these teams will make the playoffs. The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings have too many holes to be successful, especially with the difficulty of their remaining schedules. The Minnesota Vikings passing offense, led by sophomore Christian Ponder, has struggled mightily and now could be without its biggest weapon in Percy Harvin. The Detroit Lions have struggled with consistency issues. While they do have the number one ranked passing offense in terms of passing yards per game, inconsistencies on both sides of the ball have seriously hurt them. In week ten, expect the Lions to avenge a week four loss to the Vikings, extending their win streak to three.

Detroit- 35

Minnesota- 21

Buffalo at New England

A glance at the box score from the week four matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots could be a good determinant as to which team will win this game. The Bills went into halftime against the Patriots with a 21-7 lead. The defensive acquistions during the off-season seemed to be paying off and C.J. Spiller was running wild against the Pats defense. And then the Bills started to play like the Bills we have come to know this year. In the second half, they turned the ball over three times, allowed six touchdowns on six consecutive Patriot drives, and in total surrendered 580 yards of offense. That second half from their week four matchup is indicative of what week ten will be like. While the Patriots will not be able to match their rushing offense from week four, expect Tom Brady to pick apart the Bills secondary in a season sweep of Buffalo.

Buffalo- 17

New England- 35

San Diego at Tampa Bay

When the San Diego Chargers drafted Ryan Mathews with the 12^th overall pick in the 2010 draft, they were hoping he would have the impact that Doug Martin is having in Tampa Bay. Mathews mediocre play has not replaced the likes of LaDainian Tomlinson, Michael Turner, and Darren Sproles. The Chargers offense has suffered as a result. They rank in the bottom half of the league in both passing offense and rushing offense. Few could have guessed that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense would be more threatening than the Chargers. Rookie sensation Doug Martin, a rejuvenated Josh Freeman, and the number one defense against the run have led the Bucs to three wins in their last four games. Expect this to be the highest scoring game of the week. With wildcard hopes resting on the fate of games like this for both teams, this is the most important game of the season for them. Philip Rivers is always at his best in the second half of the season and that will continue this year. The Chargers will overcome a journey cross country, and Philip Rivers will pass for over 400 yards, as the Chargers knock off the Bucs in a close contest.

San Diego- 45

Tampa Bay- 38

Denver at Carolina

Cam Newton was asked what he thought about his counterpart in week ten in Peyton Manning. He responded by saying that he has seen Peyton Manning in a Papa John’s uniform, making audible’s in a Buick Verano, and that he sees him everywhere. The major difference there is that while Peyton Manning is breaking down film of the Panthers defense, Cam Newton is busy watching t.v. Some argue that the expectations for Newton are too high and that he doesn’t have enough playmakers around him. Even those arguments fail to make up for the severity of the slump that Newton finds himself. His 77 quarterback rating and 57% completion percentage rank in the bottom four of the starting quarterbacks in the league. Newton should pay close attention to the way Peyton Manning manages and executes on the field, as he should also pay attention to the way Manning conducts himself after games. With another three touchdown performance from Manning, the Denver Broncos will win their fourth straight game as the Carolina Panthers fall to 2-7 and Newton dons another ugly sweater in a post-game press conference filled with disappointment.

Denver- 40

Carolina- 30

Oakland at Baltimore

The Baltimore Ravens should be considered one of the most overrated teams in the league. A 6-2 record is deceiving because of the teams they have beaten and the manner in which they beat those teams. Statistics also demonstrate that the Ravens rank in the bottom half of the league in three out of the four major statistical categories: 15^th in passing offense, 16^th in rushing offense, 22^nd in opponent passing yards, and 28^th in opponent rushing yards.  They are fortunate to host the Oakland Raiders in week ten. The Raiders could be without their star runningback Darren McFadden and have to travel cross country for their game at M and T Bank Stadium. Expect Joe Flacco to further cripple a reeling Oakland team as the Ravens improve to 7-2.

Oakland- 17

Baltimore- 34

NY Jets at Seattle

There is always discussion about how the “12^th man” of CenturyLink Field is going to impact opposing offenses. However, the home crowd may have more of a positive effect on Russell Wilson than anything else. In four games at home this season, Russell Wilson is completing 62% of his passes with nine touchdown passes, zero interceptions and a quarterback rating of 120. Wow. He has simply been perfect at home. In week ten, Wilson and the Seahawks welcome the 3-5 New York Jets after a 2,848 mile journey across country. Mark Sanchez’ beauty rest on the plane ride over will be disturbed by thoughts of Bruce Irvin, Brandon Mebane, and Chris Clemons whom anchor a Seahawks defense that ranks 4^th in the league in total sacks. As Mark Sanchez and the Jets’ offensive struggles continue at the hands of the fearsome Seattle defense, the chants for Tebow will echo across country leaving Rex Ryan no choice but to make a change at quarterback.

NY Jets- 17

Seattle- 24

St. Louis at San Francisco

Is it just me, or does it feel like the St. Louis Rams have had three or four bye weeks in a row? Maybe that’s what the team thought because the Rams have taken the last four weeks off. They had lost their last three games and then had an actual bye week in week nine. The Rams might as well not show up to Candlestick Park. The San Francisco 49ers boast the 2^nd rank rushing defense in the league and the 5^th ranked passing defense. Expect that defense  to stifle a Rams offense that has scored only 17 points per game as the 49ers improve to 7-2.

St. Louis- 13

San Francisco- 26

Dallas at Philadelphia

Scrolling through television channels late Monday Night, I stumbled upon watching America’s Funniest Home Videos on ABC. I was watching for about 10-15 minutes, and then I realized that instead I was watching the Eagles offensive line attempt to block. Those laughable, failed attempts and watching Michael Vick duck his head in fear, were much funnier than couples slip and fall into wedding cakes and children falling off of bikes. Now, these same Philly linemen are going to have to block Demarcus Ware and company in an effort to keep Michael Vick healthy.  While the pressure on Michael Vick will not subside, LeSean McCoy will finally get the number of carries necessary to carry this depleted Eagles team. In games this season where McCoy gets 20+ rushes, Philadelphia is 3-0. In games this season where McCoy gets less than 20 rushes, the Eagles are 0-5. That record will be 4-0 after this Sunday when McCoy leads the Eagles to a win against the Cowboys. With rumors of Sean Payton coming to Dallas in the off-season, Jason Garrett should cherish the final weeks he has left as Dallas’ head coach.

Dallas- 27

Philadelphia- 30

Houston at Chicago

Without a doubt the game of the year so far. There are numerous stars on both sides of the ball for both teams. Brian Urlacher. J.J. Watt. Matt Forte. Arian Foster. Brandon Marshall. Andre Johnson. Julius Peppers. Matt Schaub. Jay Cutler. This is going to be a treat for all football fans. So which team has the upper hand? The Chicago Bears defense has scored seven touchdowns off of 17 interceptions. To put that into perspective, the Indianapolis Colts only have three takeaways the whole season. Charles Tilman and Tim Jennings lead the way for the Bears defense as Tilman leads the league in interceptions with six and Jennings leads the league in forced fumbles with seven. However, J.J. Watt, leader of the league in sacks, is a complete game changer. He has an effect on the quarterback even when he doesn’t get a sack. Watt’s ability to change an offense will be the key to this game. The consistency and discipline demonstrated by the Texans offense will limit the Bears’ defense big play abilities. Texans go into the Windy City and knock off the 7-1 Bears.

Houston- 27

Chicago- 23

Kansas City at Pittsburgh

Romeo Crennel dismissed himself as the defensive coordinator of the Kansas City Chiefs. He made that move because he said he wanted to spend more time with a reeling offense. There isn’t enough time left in the season for Romeo to fix an offense averaging 11.5 points per game over its last four games. This week also marks the first time Todd Haley will face his old team. Haley must love how badly the Chiefs are playing offensively. He has more weapons in Pittsburgh. He has an elite quarterback in Big Ben. This one won’t even be close. Pittsburgh has had a history this year of playing down to their opponent’s level, specifically in losses to the Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans. Not this week. On the Monday Night Football stage, the Steelers will easily beat the Kansas City Chiefs as they look to oust the Ravens as the leaders of the AFC North.

Kansas City- 14

Pittsburgh- 28

Fraser's Favorites Week 9

Kansas City at San Diego

For the last several years, games between these two teams have been masked with a false sense of meaning. That is, we think that the Chiefs and Chargers can be competitive, but in the end, they are just two very mediocre if not below average teams playing in a mediocre division. Not only do these games mean nothing in the grand scheme of the playoff race, but they are also some of the ugliest games imaginable. Last year, in the two games these teams played, there were 11 total turnovers and 32 penalties committed. In week four, that ugly play continued as the Kansas City Chiefs turned the ball over six times in a 37-20 loss to the Chargers. Don’t expect much to change in week nine. The Chiefs have had no consistency at the quarterback position, and no consistency from pass rush on defense which is their supposed strength. Look for Ryan Mathews to break out in a big way on the Thursday night stage, as the Chargers hand the Chiefs their fifth straight loss.

Kansas City- 17

San Diego- 31

Denver at Cincinnati

To Ken Anderson, being mentioned in the same breath and sentence as Peyton Manning would be an honor. However, if Manning continues to match the performances he has put on over the last five games (14 touchdowns to one interception), he could accomplish what Anderson did in 1981 with the Bengals; win both the Comeback Player of the Year award and the NFL MVP. That MVP campaign will continue in week nine. While Andy Dalton and A.J. Green have shown explosiveness, they do not get enough help around them to stick with Manning and the Broncos. Expect Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos to pick apart a Bengals defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in both pass and rush defense.

Denver- 35

Cincinnati- 24

Baltimore at Cleveland

For the past decade, the Cleveland Browns have been the doormat of the AFC North and would be expected to get dominated by division rivals. Not anymore. The Cleveland Browns have been rejuvenated by two rookies, Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson. Despite being bothered by injury practically all season, Trent Richardson has proven why so many thought highly of him coming into the league. Quarterback Brandon Weeden has already made tremendous strides, illustrating superior accuracy, particularly on deep throws. This week nine matchup will illustrate the difference between year past and the new-look Browns. Cleveland welcomes the current leader of the AFC North, the Baltimore Ravens. That lead will not last. There are way too many holes in this team, specifically on their defense, to overcome. Injuries and old age have plagued this defense all season and their offense is not good enough to compensate. A slow defense that has difficulties stopping the run is not one that wants to play Trent Richardson right now. The Browns get an upset win at home over their division rivals to continue to a three game win-streak.

Baltimore- 17

Cleveland- 20

Arizona at Green Bay

Remember when the Arizona Cardinals were the shock of the league after a 4-0 start? I don’t remember it either. This has to be one of the quickest turnarounds for a team in history. Over their last four games the Arizona Cardinals are averaging only nine points per game and their defense hasn’t been what it was in the first four weeks. This week, the Cardinals travel to Wisconsin to take on the Green Bay Packers. Last week, against an inferior Jaguars team, Rodgers and the Packers allowed Jacksonville to hang around to the end of the game. That second half dagger has been missing so far. Week nine will be the turning point for the Pack. Aaron Rodgers and the offense will find its stride at Lambeau Field, as the Cardinals offense remains stuck in reverse.

Arizona- 13

Green Bay- 30

Chicago at Tennessee

Lions and Titans and Bears, oh my! Courage, heart, and a brain were the three items that were asked for in the movie Wizard of Oz. The Chicago Bears certainly demonstrated all three last Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. A courageous comeback was made possible because of the brains shown by Jay Cutler continuously throwing to wide receiver Brandon Marshall in clutch time. The Bears managed to improve to 6-1 on the season, and remain in control of the NFC North. In week nine, the Bears travel to Tennessee to take on the Titans. The Titans plan to turn back to sophomore quarterback Jake Locker instead of veteran Matt Hasselback. Why, Mike Munchak?? Why? Hasselback gives the Titans the capability of winning now in a conference where 9-7 might make the playoffs. With that quarterback controversy lingering overhead, expect the consistency of the Chicago Bears to reign supreme in this week nine matchup. A persistent ground attack led my Matt Forte, and a defense that had scored more points this season than some offenses, will hand Tennessee its second straight loss at home.

Chicago- 27

Tennessee- 21

Miami at Indianapolis

The Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts were projected to have four wins each for the entire year; if they were lucky. By the end of week eight, each team is above .500 and has their eyes set on an AFC Wildcard spot. Rookie Andrew Luck has been as advertised, ranking in the top ten in the league in passing yards per game. Luck has also proven he has the ability to run as well, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt, and gaining 14 first downs with his legs. His counterpart in week nine, rookie Ryan Tannehill is hoping to play this week, but is listed as questionable because of a leg injury he suffered early in week eight. Even if Tannehill can’t go, Matt Moore is a capable back-up. The key to this game will be the rushing attack of the Miami Dolphins. Over the last four games, the Dolphins have averaged only 71 yards per game on the ground and their star runningback Reggie Bush has been held to under 60 yards in Miami’s last four games. Bush will not be contained in week nine. He and the Dolphins rushing offense will lead Miami past the Colts to improve to 5-3 on the year.

Miami- 23

Indianapolis- 20

Carolina at Washington

We know one thing that will be needed at the end of this game; oxygen for the defensive linemen trying to catch the opposing quarterback. This matchup features two quarterbacks that give defensive coordinators headaches with their running abilities. Cam Newton has to be fired up to play this game. Not only has his team fallen victim to several last second field goals in recent weeks, but his incredible rookie statistics are being threatened by RGIII. Which quarterback will prevail in this week nine showdown? There is no way Cam Newton can be restrained for this long. He has to break out again at some point in 2012. Will it be week nine? Yes. Newton will finally look like he did in 2011, as the Panthers steal a win from the Redskins in a close contest.

Carolina- 30

Washington- 28

Detroit at Jacksonville

The Detroit Lions simply have to win this football game. The NFC Wildcard is going to be extremely competitive this year as three teams from each division, excluding the NFC South, could be vying for spots.  The Lions also have on their schedule tough matchups with the Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, two games against the Green Bay Packers, the Chicago Bears, and no cake walks in the Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings. Defeating the Jaguars in Jacksonville would at least put Detroit in the middle of the pack. The Jaguars rank in the bottom half of the league in all of the following: passing offense (32^nd), rushing offense( 27^th), pass defense (23^rd), and run defense (25^th). The end of this season cannot come soon enough for first year head coach Mike Mularkey. Could the Jaguars be looking toward Matt Barkley behind center in 2013?

Detroit- 42

Jacksonville- 17

Buffalo at Houston

A team that should be built for upstate New York winters should be prepared to stop the run, right? Most teams, when they have to play in snowy, wintry conditions, resort to a ground and pound style of football. So how do the Buffalo Bills have the worst rushing defense in the NFL? Great question. When the Buffalo Bills went out and picked up Mario Williams and drafted Marcell Dareus, they completely forgot about their linebacking core. Kelvin Sheppard. Nigel Bradham. Nick Barnett. These three linebackers have been virtually non-existent for the Bills defensively. THe Bills are giving up an average of over 170 yards per game on the ground. That average for rushing yards per game will actually go up after this game. Arian Foster, Ben Tate, and the Texans run offense will combine for over 300 yards against the lowly Bills.

Buffalo- 10

Houston- 30

Tampa Bay at Oakland

When a majority was prepared to end the defibrillation process on these teams and many were declaring them dead, both the Bucs and Raiders have won two games in a row and shown some signs of life. The Bucs have won two of their last three games thanks to much improved play from Josh Freeman and a consistent rushing attack from rookie Doug Martin. Over his last three games, Freeman has thrown nine touchdowns and only one interception. He has started to develop a repertoire with veteran wide receiver Vincent Jackson, who has been targeted 28 times in three games. Week nine could be a crucial game in the rebuilding process for the Bucs and Raiders. In a close game, Josh Freeman will continue his exceptional play, as the Buccaneers improve to 4-4 and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Tampa Bay- 27

Oakland- 23

Minnesota at Seattle

There is going to have to be a whole lot of pain medication and ice baths prepared for the end of this game. Expect a hard-hitting, smash mouth football game between the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks. Not only can both defenses put pressure on the opposing quarterback, but both teams feature runningbacks that can deliver serious blows to defenders. When Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch get to the second level of defense, you can imagine why no one wants to tackle them. With two young quarterbacks, in Christian Ponder of the Vikings and Russel Wilson of the Seahawks, much of the power of these offensive attacks weigh heavily on these runningbacks. However, the key to winning this game will be the quarterback that can be the best game manager and the offensive line that can keep their quarterback clean. With Bruce Irvin and Red Bryant, the Seahawks pass rush will force Ponder to make several mistakes, as Seattle improves to 5-3.

Minnesota- 20

Seattle- 27

Pittsburgh at NY Giants

Let us all hope the Pittsburgh Steelers have away 1930’s throwback uniforms as appealing as those from last week. The equipment manager must have gotten fashion advice from Walt Frazier and Craig Sager whom always don interesting suits on NBA sidelines. It didn’t matter what jersey’s the Steelers wore last Sunday, they would have easily beaten RGII and the Redskins. In week nine, the Steelers will visit the defending champion New York Giants. The New York Giants are being recognized as one of the powerhouses in the NFC. Some of their wins may not be pretty, specifically, their wins over the Redskins, Bucs, and Cowboys last week, but they always find a way to win those games at the end. It is inevitable that the G-men will lose one of those close games. That loss will come in week nine. Big Ben will escape the constant pass rush of the Giants and the fourth quarter last-second drive led by Eli Manning will be unsuccessful.

Pittsburgh- 30

NY Giants- 26

Dallas at Atlanta

A tale of two totally different beginnings to their week eight games for the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons.  The Dallas Cowboys first six drives ended in either an intercepted pass or a punt. The Atlanta Falcons first six drives all ended in points. The Falcons have been able to take control of the lead early and control that lead for the remainder of games. In fact, through their seven games, Atlanta has only been trailing for a little over seven minutes in total. A rejuvenated defense under Mike Nolan has surrendered only 18 points per game, while an offense led by MVP candidate Matt Ryan has demonstrated the ability to be both explosive through the air and control games on the ground. However, a major flaw in the Falcons team could be unearthed this Sunday Night. The offensive line has to be perfect to defend Demarcus Ware and Rob Ryan’s blitz schemes. Expect the pass rush of the Cowboys to be equalized by the improved screen attack of the Falcons, as Matt Ryan and Atlanta improve to 8-0.

Dallas- 27

Atlanta- 35

Philadelphia at New Orleans

We get it. Michael Vick isn’t the same player the Eagles signed to a contract three years ago. But Vick isn’t the main problem with this team. The major problems with this team are the lack of identity on offense, the inconsistencies with defensive strategies, and the players on the team simply being overrated. In speaking of overrated, so was the much-anticipated return of interim Head Coach Joe Vitt. After winning two games in a row, and Vitt returning, there was hope in New Orleans. And then they got crushed by the Denver Broncos on a national stage. I’m still not ready to declare this Saints team completely dead. While they have to go on a serious run to make the playoffs, you can bet there is not a team in the league that wants to play Drew Brees. This is a make or break game for both the Saints and Eagles. Another loss and they can kiss their playoff dreams good-bye. The dream continues for the Eagles, as Vick picks apart a porous Saints secondary.

Philadelphia- 35

New Orleans- 33