Fraser's Favorites Week 11

N.Y. Jets at Denver

Would a team rather have a quarterback that can throw the ball but is turnover prone or a quarterback that “can’t hit the broadside of a barn”, but can lead a team to victory with his running ability and intangibles? The solution is simple; find a new quarterback! Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow are not, and will not be, good enough to win the biggest games in the NFL. Decision-making and accuracy are necessary to succeed and can often times be impossible to develop. Sanchez and Tebow both lack these essential skills. Fortunately for Sanchez and Tebow, both the Jets and Broncos have solid enough running games and defenses to keep their teams competitive. The outcome of this game will be determined by the speed of the Jets defense and their ability to shut down the Tebow led option running attack.

New York Jets- 19
Denver- 13

Buffalo at Miami

Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills surprising start to the season is now a distant memory. The Bills have lost three of their last four games and have been outscored 71 to 18 in their last two losses. In those two losses, Fitzpatrick is a combined 35/62 for 307 yards two touchdowns and five interceptions. The Harvard man hasn’t quite learned enough to carry his team to the playoffs yet. They are a young team though, and will begin to compete every year. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins have seemed to shake off their extremely poor start and have now beaten the Chiefs and Redskins to go on a two game win streak. Because the Miami offense has only been able to score 17.6 points a game, it is crucial that the Dolphins defense continues to minimize opponent scoring opportunities. It will be the Bills defense that creates the scoring opportunities though as Matt Moore commits several turnovers.

Buffalo- 24
Miami- 17

Dallas at Washington

The Cowboys seem to be at their best when they fly under the radar. The first several weeks of the season the media was all over Tony Romo for his Jekyll and Hyde-like performances. Recently, there has been little talk about the Cowboys and Romo specifically and the Cowboys have cruised to win two straight games. The media remains quiet this week about the Cowboys as they travel to Washington in an NFC East matchup. The Redskins are last in the NFC in turnover ratio with 21 turnovers and only 13 takeaways. While the Redskins do have one of the better pass defenses in the NFC, they are allowing close to 120 rushing yards per game. Demarco Murray has revived the Cowboys running game and will once again reach that 120 yard rushing mark and lead the Cowboys to victory.

Dallas- 27
Washington- 18

Oakland at Minnesota

Other than Colts head coach Jim Caldwell, Leslie Frazier should be the coach with the hottest seat in the NFL. Granted, the Vikings are in a difficult division and have a tough schedule, but they should be playing better football than this. They are playing well below their potential. In speaking of potential, Carson Palmer and the Raiders showed a glimpse of their potential against the Chargers last Thursday night. Palmer connected on several deep passes to Denarius Moore and demonstrated that he can still throw an accurate deep ball. Jared Allen will constantly get pressure on Carson Palmer though, forcing Palmer to make errant deep ball passes. As the Vikings defense forces turnovers, the offense will rely heavily on Adrian Peterson and he will carry them to their third win.

Oakland- 23
Minnesota- 26

Tampa Bay at Green Bay

The first two offensive and defensive possessions for the Packers this Monday were a microcosm of their entire season. Aaron Rodgers was unstoppable completing “indefensible” back-shoulder passes as Jon Gruden stated, while Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson were making big plays on defense. The big question for the Packers for the rest of the season will be if they can run the table and go undefeated. With the struggling Buccaneers traveling to Lambeau Field, the talks of an undefeated season can continue as the Packers will crush the Bucs.

Tampa Bay- 17
Green Bay- 42

Carolina at Detroit

Oh that feeling is back in Detroit. The Lions have been victims in three of their last four games and are taking on the identity of their coach; crybabies. As the Lions loss got worse on Sunday, so did the temper tantrums that the Lions players threw. In speaking of throwing, instead of worrying about postgame handshakes, Jim Schwartz should tell his quarterback Matthew Stafford that he should throw to players wearing Lions jerseys and not of the opposing team. As Stafford and the Lions have seemed to cool down since their hot start so has Cam Newton who suddenly receives far less publicity as the Panthers woes continue. The quarterback who gets the most support from his running game will win this game. The Panthers running game is far more talented than the Lions running game.

Carolina-24
Detroit- 23

Seattle at St. Louis

The highly anticipated matchup between the Seahawks and the Rams. Despite their records and the worthless nature in which this game will be played, this will definitely be one of the better games of the week. Both teams have revitalized bruising running backs that refuse to go down in Steven Jackson and Marshawn Lynch. Both teams are also division rivals that are looking toward the future. The immediate future is brighter for the Seahawks as they go on the road to beat the Rams and improve to 4 and 6.

Seattle- 21
St. Louis- 14

Jacksonville at Cleveland

This is another one of those games where the outcome does not matter because of the team’s records but where the game will be competitive. Neither team scores more than 15 points per game and both Blaine Gabbert and Colt McCoy are struggling this season. However, the Jacksonville defense has surprisingly been one of the better defenses in the league and will completely shut down the Browns offense. A tough defense and Maurice Jones-Drew will be enough to beat the feeble Browns. The Jaguars just have to hope Blaine Gabbert doesn’t hand this game away with turnovers.

Jacksonville- 16
Cleveland- 12

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Edgar Allen Poe might have been talking about the Baltimore Ravens in a poem he wrote in 1845 titled “The Raven”. “Weak and weary” and “nearly napping” seem to describe this Ravens team perfectly in their games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Seattle Seahawks. Weak and weary from their long journey to Seattle and because of the beating their defense took from running back Marshawn Lynch. Nearly napping because their offense slumbered for two games and inexplicably lost to two teams with inferior talent. Now they play a key AFC North game against the Bengals at home. With an injured A.J. Green and a rookie quarterback playing the Ravens defense, Baltimore will right the ship and defeat the upstart Bengals. Doubt the Ravens, Nevermore.

Cincinnati- 20
Baltimore- 26

Arizona at San Francisco

There is now little doubt that the 49ers are one of the better teams in the NFL. They have a solid game manager in Alex Smith, an elite running back in Frank Gore, and a fiery head coach in Jim Harbaugh. The team has taken on Harbaugh’s identity as a competitive, driven, and confident team which refuses to lose. In a division where there is little competition, the 49ers could lock up a playoff spot by December. However, they should not take this Arizona Cardinals team lightly. The Cardinals have won two games in a row under the leadership of John Skelton. Skelton has definitely been shaky at times but has put his team in position to win games. The most surprising part of this two game win streak though has been the play of the Cardinals defense which has held their last two opponents to 13 and 17 points respectively. The Cardinals defense will contain Frank Gore and force Smith to beat them through the air. Smith will do so, but this contest will be much closer than expected.

Arizona- 24
San Francisco- 27

San Diego at Chicago

Da Bears are playing the best all-around football in the NFC right now. Offensively the Bears are finally starting to protect Jay Cutler, defensively they are back to making big plays, and on special teams, well, they have Devin Hester. And now the Chargers get to travel to the windy city in what could be a must win game for San Diego. They have been dreadful in their last three games, particularly on offense where Philip Rivers and Ryan Mathews have been inept. Fortunately for San Diego, they find themselves in the thick of the AFC West race as the division continues deeper into chaos. The Chargers have to get back on track in this game or their season could be in doubt. Philip Rivers will finally take care of the football and will demonstrate why some see him as an elite quarterback in this league.

San Diego- 28
Chicago- 27

Tennessee at Atlanta

Mike Smith’s decision to go for it on fourth down in overtime will always be a highly criticized decision because of the failed attempt. However, the decision itself speaks volumes about the confidence Mike Smith has in his football team. All of the talk this week has centralized around that decision rather than what is even more important; how the Falcons played on Sunday. Again, the Falcons biggest problems were inconsistencies on offense and letting up big plays on defense. They welcome Chris Johnson and the Titans to the Georgia Dome this week in a game with major playoff implications for both teams. The Falcons defense is constantly criticized for its porous pass defense. However, it is important to point out that the Falcons have the third best rush defense in the league allowing only 90 rushing yards a game. Sean Weatherspoon and Curtis Lofton were able to contain the Saints Darren Sproles and will equally contain the Titans Chris Johnson. This will be the first of five straight wins for the Falcons as they put pressure on the Saints in the NFC South.

Tennessee- 20
Atlanta-30

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants

What should have been a crucial week 11 matchup for both the Eagles and Giants is now only important to one team. The Giants find themselves at the top of the NFC East despite losing to the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday. The Giants losses earlier in the season to the Seahawks and the Redskins could really end up hurting them in the division race as their gauntlet of a schedule continues. On the other side of the field, what was supposed to be the Eagles dream season is now truly a nightmare. Andy Reid finds himself under the coaching guillotine and Mike Vick continues to get thrashed each week. There were always serious concerns about the hits Mike Vick would take as a running quarterback, but no one could have predicted the amount of injuries he has had this season. Mike Vick (or Mike Kafka) can not be looking forward to their matchup with Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, and Mathias Kiwanuka. The Nightmare continues….

Philadelphia-21
New York Giants- 28

Kansas City at New England

The Kansas City Chiefs have now lost starting safety Eric Berry, starting running back Jamaal Charles, and now starting quarterback Matt Cassel. They have replaced these stars with runningback Jackie Battle, safety Reshard Langford, and quarterback Tyler Palko. Who???!!! It is impossible to compete in the NFL without satisfactory depth especially at the skill positions. The Chiefs were competitive and in the division race until they recently lost to the Dolphins and Broncos in back to back weeks. While the Chiefs losing streak is beginning, the Patriots ended theirs Sunday night with a key victory over the Jets. The Patriots will dominate all aspects of this game as the Patriots welcome Tyler Palko into the NFL.

Kansas City-9
New England-33

Fraser's Favorites Week 10

Oakland at San Diego

Hue Jackson might want to take back that statement about the Raiders getting Palmer being the greatest trade in NFL history. Leading 24-14 in Broncos territory Palmer threw an interception that ignited 24 unanswered points by the Broncos. Palmer could not do anything with the offense in the fourth quarter and the Raiders have now lost both games Palmer has played in. Now they travel to San Diego to play a team desperate to win and keep their playoff hopes alive. The AFC West is more of a mess this year than it has been in years past. And that is saying something. Instead of the division coming down to the last game of the season for the Chiefs and the Chargers, this could be a fight to the finish between all four teams. The Chargers have always been the team to outlast in this division and will get back to their winning ways at home against the Raiders this week.

Oakland- 23
San Diego- 34

New Orleans at Atlanta

The NFC South is seriously being overlooked. There are four teams in this division that are capable of competing with any other team in the NFL. The best two teams in the NFC South meet this week at the Georgia Dome. After getting absolutely embarrassed by the Rams, the Saints managed a win at home against the Buccaneers. Meanwhile, with each week, the Falcons look more and more like the 13-3 team they were last year. They have won three games in a row and have favorable matchups on their schedule ahead with a majority of their games at home. This game will be won by the team that controls the time of possession and forces the most turnovers. The Falcons hold a slight edge in each of these categories and will win a game that could come down to who has the ball last.

New Orleans- 27
Atlanta- 28

Houston at Tampa Bay

The scariest team in the AFC right now is the Houston Texans. They are without, arguably, their best offensive player in Andre Johnson and without their best defensive player in Mario Williams but have managed to go on a three game winning streak. On that three game win streak, they have beat their opponents by an average of 21 points per game and put together rushing totals of 222, 156, and 261. Now they will get Andre Johnson back. The Texans now have the ability to beat teams on the ground and are getting back the best wide receiver in football. This does not bode well for a Tampa Bay team that is 27th in the league in passing yards allowed per game and 26th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers lose their third straight game as they fall to the Texans and slowly drop out of the NFC playoff race.

Houston- 35
Tampa Bay- 24

Arizona at Philadelphia

The Eagles have beaten themselves all season. They have superior talent on their team but are not making the easy plays. They make the simple plays look difficult and the difficult plays look relatively easy. For instance, DeSean Jackson trying to do to much at the end of the first half against the Bears on a punt return, fumbling, and giving the Bears an easy seven points. It seems like the Eagles have committed numerous mental errors like this that have cost them. The talent on this team is still good enough to beat any other team in the league and carry them into the playoffs, but they have to stop beating themselves. Eagles roll over the Cardinals at home to set up a decisive road game against the Giants in week 11.

Arizona-17
Philadelphia- 33

Washington at Miami

Forget about the record the Dolphins are the better team here. Mike Shanahan’s zone run scheme does not seem to be working for the Redskins as they are averaging a mere 89.9 rushing yards per game and scoring 15.9 points per game. It is easy to point out the kryptonite for both of these teams: turnovers. Miami and Washington are tied for second to last in the NFL in turnover ratio with eight more giveaways then takeaways. Tony Sparano can sit down again as his seat begins to get a little cooler.

Washington- 21
Miami- 27



Tennessee at Carolina

We tend to forget that the biggest need on draft day for the Titans was the same as the Panthers. The Panthers have clearly solved their problem for the future, but what about the Titans? Eighth overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft quarterback Jake Locker out of Washington is 1 for 2 passing in his career with 12 yards. The Titans need to start questioning when they will start to use Locker as the season continues and as the Texans begin to pull away in the AFC South. Cam Newton will show Locker what the expectations are for a quarterback in the NFL and will lead the Panthers to victory against the Titans. With Cam Newton playing as well as he is, it is difficult to come up with a division with four better young quarterbacks then Brees, Ryan, Newton and Freeman.

Tennessee- 23
Carolina- 26

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Do you think that the Steelers marked a November 13th matchup with the Bengals as a key game on their schedule? Especially after back to back games with the Patriots and Ravens. After being swept by the Ravens in the season series, the Steelers really need to capitalize on games they are supposed to win. This is a game that they are supposed to win, and they will. Andy Dalton has seriously exceeded expectations this season but has not yet faced the Steelers or the Ravens. The Bengals season has been magical up to this point, but with a tough stretch of games to end the season they will find themselves watching football from home in January. Expect the Steelers defense to finally disrupt the already dangerous Dalton to Green connection and completely shut down the Bengals on offense.

Pittsburgh- 23
Cincinnati- 13

St. Louis at Cleveland

It doesn’t get much worse than the way the Rams lost last week. Allowing John Skelton to tie the game with less than four minutes left after leading a majority of the game and not capitalizing on several opportunities to win the game in the last two minutes. Followed by a 99 yard punt return for a touchdown in overtime with five Rams players missing tackles. For the Browns, experts are now beginning to question the trade sending Julio Jones for multiple Falcons draft picks. The point of the Browns trade was to create a better team for the future, not to be a relevant team now. The success or failure of that trade will be determined with who the Browns get in the upcoming drafts. Both the Rams and the Browns are a couple of drafts away from being considered playoff contenders. The Browns are without their starting runningback Peyton Hillis and without backup Montario Hardesty. No run game means Chris Long will get to Colt McCoy.

St. Louis- 27
Cleveland- 26

Buffalo at Dallas

The Bills had planned on welcoming the Jets to a “White Out” at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The only thing you can white out is the Bills as a playoff contender. All good things must come to an end and unfortunately for the Bills, their miraculous start to the season is slowly starting to dwindle. This matchup between the Bills and Cowboys is now a crucial game for both teams. With the Eagles losing to the Bears and the Giants schedule getting more difficult as the weeks go on, the Cowboys have the opportunity to gain some ground in the NFC East. Demarco Murray sold everyone after one week in the NFL breaking the Cowboys single game rushing record. He has now proven after three weeks that he can consistently provide the Cowboys with the running game they have been looking for. The Cowboys continue to handle weaker opponents and creep back into the playoff picture.

Buffalo- 20
Dallas- 27

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

This game features two explosive, entertaining offenses. The Colts and Jaguars average a laughable 12.3 and 14.2 points per game. Wait. That is an average? Enough said. Both coaches fine themselves on the hot seat. Blaine Gabbert, the third highest drafted rookie quarterback, is completing 45% of his passes and is continuously throwing passes off of his back foot. Meanwhile, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have been relatively irrelevant this season. However, it’s extremely difficult for a team to impose a pass rush when the other team does not have to pass the ball after halftime. Fighting for their first win of the season, Freeney and Mathis carry this team to victory forcing multiple Gabbert turnovers.

Jacksonville- 13
Indianapolis- 15

Denver at Kansas City

That’s it. Sign the ballots. Tim Tebow goes from here to zero back to hero again this week. He goes from backup to glorified starter to almost getting benched to now future Hall of Famer. He is a below average quarterback with absolutely horrendous mechanics with the athletic skills to create plays. If the Raiders showed any signs of the team they were at the beginning of the season, Tebow would be 1-2 as a starter and we would still be talking about him potentially being benched. He is not good. Period. It’s bothersome to think that this is an important game in the AFC West because both of these teams would be in last place in most divisions in the NFL. Kansas City laid an egg against the Dolphins last week. They cannot afford to take another step back and find a way to shut down the high-powered Tebow attack. Doing so is simple though, make Tebow throw.

Denver- 26
Kansas City- 30

Baltimore at Seattle

After playing in a total of 42 games, Tarvaris Jackson is completing 59% of his passes, has 30 touchdown passes, 31 interceptions and a 75 quarterback rating. That is exactly the type of guy I want to sign to an $8 million contract and expect to lead my team to a SuperBowl. Great signing Seattle. However, now the Seahawks have put themselves in prime position to draft USC quarterback Matt Barkley who coincidentally played where Pete Carroll coached. However, this has classic “trap” game written all over it. The Ravens are coming off a huge win against the Steelers and play an equally important game against the Bengals in week 11. The Ravens are known for their usual hiccup games like week 7 against the Jaguars. Will they have another one this season? Hiccup

Baltimore- 23
Seattle- 24

Detroit at Chicago

You really gotta love some of these ESPN Sunday Countdown commercials. The Lions and the Bears have been doing battle since before we knew it. The Lions have been dominated in the NFC North for the last two decades. They finally started to demonstrate a competitive nature at the end of last season which carried over to a five game win streak to start the season. However, the Lions have now lost two out of their last three and still have the Bears, Packers twice, and New Orleans left on their schedule. What once seemed like an automatic playoff team is now fighting to stay alive in the NFC wildcard race. The Bears have finally figured out how to protect Jay Cutler and have won four out of their last five games. Matt Forte runs for over 150 yards and the Bears even the Bears and Lions record at 6-3.

Detroit- 28
Chicago- 30

N.Y. Giants at San Francisco

"I don't worry about our schedule, I feel like our schedule needs to worry about us."- Antrel Rolle. Rolle deserves a lot of credit for this one. To be able to twist a question from the media to make such a strong statement about your team. The bigger statement though was made on Sunday against the Patriots. Eli Manning showed the NFL that you can’t spell Elite with “Eli”. Meanwhile, the 49ers have won six in a row and are one Tony Romo miracle pass away from being undefeated. This is going to be a phenomenal game. Both teams display emerging and already dominant pass-rushers in Aldon Smith and Jason Pierre Paul and excellent defenses. The team that will win this game is the team with the better offense; the Giants.

New York Giants- 24
San Francisco- 20


New England at N.Y. Jets

It’s tough to imagine the Patriots losing two games in a row. Now it is really difficult to imagine the Patriots losing three games in a row. Tom Brady does not seem to have the same swagger we are used to seeing. While he threw for 342 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants, his QB rating was a 75 and he threw two interceptions at key times. But the problem with this team isn’t the offense, it’s the defense. Even after Brady led this team to a four point lead with only 1:30 left, the defense seemed to collapse giving up a late score to the Giants. Shonne Greene, Ladainian Tomlinson, and Joe Mcknight are finally starting to lead what was always meant to be a running football team. The Jets continue to a four game win streak and the Patriots lose three straight for the first time since 2002.

New England-27
New York Jets- 28

Minnesota at Green Bay

It is official. Aaron Rodgers is a machine. He can no longer play in the NFL. Backup quarterback Matt Flynn will play the rest of the season. Seriously though. What can a defense do to stop this guy? If you bring a blitz and force him to run, he will. Against the Chargers he had 52 yards rushing on 8 attempts. If you drop back in coverage and let him throw he will pick you apart. In his last two games Rodgers is completing 80% of his passes with seven touchdown passes and has had over a 145 quarterback rating. Teams might start considering trying onside kicks every single time they kick-off. The percentage of getting the onside kick might be greater than stopping Aaron Rodgers. Bring rookie quarterback Christian Ponder to Lambeau Field for the first time in his career and that’s another win for the Packers.

Minnesota- 24
Green Bay- 42